Shifting the Zags

A few continued thoughts on my comment last night that Gonzaga needs a new conference...

It's true, really. It's happened plenty of times throughout the history of college sports - a team changes conference affiliations based on what it thinks will help it become a more elite program. We see it all the time when schools move up from D-II, D-III, or even the NAIA into D-I in basketball, or even D-I teams moving conferences around, like the Conference USA-to-Big East exodus of the past offseason. When College of Charleston moved from the NAIA to D-I, they began play in the TAAC (now the Atlantic Sun), and when they became the class of that conference, they moved up a step to the Southern Conference. (Since then, John Kresse retired and the program has stagnated a bit, so they haven't tried to move up any further, something which might have seemed like a shoo-in eight years ago.)

So why shouldn't Gonzaga do the same? With seven WCC tournament titles in the past eight years (losing out only to San Diego in 2003) and eight WCC regular season titles in the past nine years (losing out only to Pepperdine in 2000 and sharing the title with the Waves in 2002), there's pretty much no competition for the Bulldogs in their league anymore. Despite the top-five poll rankings, however, Gonzaga has exited the NCAA Tournament in the second round each of the last four years. I think we all know that until they face elite competition on a full-season basis, the chances for improvement are marginal - Gonzaga can play all the Michigan States, UConns, Washingtons, and Memphises they can handle in November and December, but when their toughest challenge between Christmas and March is a slumming Stanford team in mid-February - a team they squeaked by at home, it bears noting - it's obvious that this team is not going to be as tournament-tested as one might like.

The only question is, where do you put a team like Gonzaga? If they were east of the Mississippi they'd have their pick of conferences; heck, Conference USA would probably be beating down the door trying to enlist them. But Spokane is pretty remote for most leagues. So let's take a look at the possibilities...

Pacific Ten
Pros: With the Pac Ten on something of a down cycle right now, Gonzaga would have less fear of a "newbie effect" and could probably step into at least the top four teams in the league immediately; it's the only Big Six conference on the West Coast.
Cons: The Pac Ten doesn't have any non-football schools and may not be looking to add any; with the conference on a down cycle, the middle-of-the-pack schools would likely have no impetus to add the Bulldogs, as that would seemingly diminish their own hopes of doing well in the conference.
Closest league member: Washington State is a scant 66 miles from Spokane; it could start a new rivalry!
Final verdict: The Pac Ten would seem like a good fit for the Zags - perhaps the only great fit - but would that conference really want to bring them on board without football?

Big Twelve
Pros: The only other Big Six league with all of its members west of the Mississippi; another conference that, aside from perhaps the very top, is not so deep, allowing the Zags to step in and contend without much dropoff.
Cons: Like the Pac Ten, the Big 12 is entirely made of schools with football - and even more importantly, there is little argument that the Big 12 is a football-first conference.
Closest league member: Colorado is the closest school to Gonzaga, and Boulder and Spokane are 800 miles apart - worse still, every other league member is more than 1000 miles away, with some of the Texas schools more than 1500.
Final verdict: The lack of football hurts here maybe even more than it would in the Pac Ten.

Western Athletic Conference
Pros: In its heyday, the WAC was nearly a major league; it hasn't been quite the same since the Mountain West broke away, but that's what happens when you try to have 16 teams (hint hint, Big East). Currently it gets some respect in the form of Nevada and recent Big West call-up Utah State.
Cons: Is the WAC big enough for Gonzaga? It's a step up from the WCC, but right now it's still firmly in the realm of the mid-major, and though Gonzaga and Nevada would give the league two currently elite (to at least some degree) programs, with a couple other teams that have made noise in the past (Hawaii, Fresno State), it's still not exactly the depth of a major (Idaho and San Jose State combined to go 10-48 this season).
Closest league member: Moscow, home of the University of Idaho, is just 68 miles from Spokane; Boise State is only 286 away.
Final verdict: The WAC might be a solid stepping stone for the Zags; if they can move up and dominate that league as well, perhaps someone like the Pac Ten might give stronger consideration. Still, that the Zags would be the only non-football league member gives pause.

Conference USA
Pros: Well, the name is "USA." It's already pretty spread out (UTEP and East Carolina are more than 1500 miles apart), so what's one more far-flung opponent?
Cons: Since the departure of teams like Marquette and DePaul, C-USA has become yet another football-only league. It's also gotten considerably weaker in terms of its basketball profile, though Gonzaga could help improve that.
Closest league member: UTEP is the closest and they're more than 1200 miles away. Not good.
Final verdict: Doesn't make much sense if the WAC is also an option, especially since the Big East exodus has thrown its status as the seventh big-time league in basketball out the window.

Independent
Pros: Gonzaga's lack of football wouldn't be an issue if they didn't have a conference affiliation, and they could schedule whatever teams they wanted to (or at least were able to).
Cons: When everyone else's conference seasons started, the Zags would suddenly find themselves with pretty slim pickings; how many teams are going to take on a top-ten team as a mid-season tune-up? The rest of the independent crop includes such luminaries as Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne, Utah Valley State, and recent 0-fer Savannah State. Also, leaving a conference means no possibility of an automatic bid.
Closest league member: N/A
Final verdict: There hasn't been a basketball independent that was a key figure on the national stage in at least 20 years, and with no DePaul or Notre Dame out there now, that doesn't figure to change even if Gonzaga joins the field. These days it's conference affiliation or bust - you think any of the independents wouldn't jump at the chance to be affiliated? Forget this one.

Conclusions
Even if Gonzaga would benefit from switching conferences, it's pretty clear it won't be happening any time soon. The big conferences are likely too football-invested (the only Big Six conference that has non-football schools is the Big East, which is already bloated and certainly much too far from Spokane), and why would Gonzaga want to switch to a conference like the WAC when they're assured of WCC domination as it stands and the WAC would only be a marginal improvement for their overall profile? As long as they can get into the top ten on the basis of a few early-season wins and stay there on the basis of not losing more than a game or two in conference, the Zags are most likely happy where they are - and I wonder if they even think to attribute their recent March struggles to a lack of competition in the league. If they do move, I think the WAC would probably be the best fit, but I'm not holding my breath, either.