Day Two Roundup

A good day if you like upsets. A bad day if you like winning pools, especially if your last name is Flaxman, as Dad and I each lost a Final Four pick to the day's two big upsets.

Upset of the Day: Northwestern State over Iowa. 3-14 upsets are really shockingly uncommon - we've had just five in the last ten years, though in the decade before that the tournament averaged one a year. Before last year (Bucknell over Kansas), though, there hadn't been one since 1999 (Weber State over UNC behind, of course, Harold "The Show" Arceneaux). So it's something of an event when one actually does come to pass, and this one ended on an improbable buzzer beater that was such a fallaway that Wallace actually fell down after the ball left his hands. I daresay it was even more impressive than Chris Lofton's shot to beat Winthrop. More impressive still was the fact that Northwestern State had been down seventeen points with just 8:30 left! You don't usually see that kind of comeback from a lower seed in these games. Wow. I got to watch the last two minutes of the game on TiVo when I got home, but at work I was stuck watching ESPN's scoreboard update itself. The score clicked to "final" before the rest updated, so at first I thought Iowa had held on... then suddenly the Northwestern State score blinked to 64. That's almost as exciting as watching a buzzer-beater live...

"No!" of the Day: Question for Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery. Would you ever refer to Michigan State as "Michigan" during a broadcast? Of course you wouldn't. So why is it okay to refer to Northwestern State as "Northwestern"? Too lazy for that extra syllable? This drove me crazy in those last two minutes. I realize they were wearing purple or a color that could be mistaken for it on TV, but they're not Northwestern, they're Northwestern State. Even after the buzzer sounded, Lundquist declared, "Northwestern wins!" Don't I wish.

Non-Upset of the Day: Albany really had me going for a while. With 11:30 left, they were up 50-38, and I dared to dream. Sure, I had UConn all the way. But I don't really like this UConn team that much, and you had to love the potential history (as well as the irony in the only team everyone thought was can't-miss this year bowing out so early). Alas, it was not to be; it took longer than usual, but UConn did eventually show their superior talent, closing the game on a 34-9 run over that final 11:30. (How not to pull an upset in the NCAAs: score 9 points in eleven minutes.)

This did make me wonder, though. People sometimes say that UConn is basically the only team that can stop UConn - i.e. they sometimes have commitment issues. Bill Simmons picked against UConn because, as he put it, "I can't pick any college team with a best player (in this case, Rudy Gay) who occasionally mails in big games." (And in fact, Gay was a relative non-factor in this game, scoring just 8 points.) But how does a close shave against a #16 seed affect the title chances of a top team, if at all? For the answer, I crunched the numbers. If you want to see the whole spreadsheet, click here. Otherwise, just read on.

Since 1985 and the expansion to 64 teams - thus creating 16 seeds - there have been, including this year, 19 games (out of 88) in which the #1 seed has defeated the #16 seed by 13 points or less. Of the 17 #1 seeds prior to this year, four lost in the second round, six lost in the Sweet 16, two lost in the Elite 8, three lost in the Final Four, and two made it all the way to the national title game before losing (including Illinois last year). None of them won a national title, however.

Really, it's hard to draw any conclusions at all from this. After all, Kansas beat Prairie View in 1998 by the largest margin in history - 110-52, a 58-point thumping - and proceeded to bow out in the second round to 8-seed Rhode Island. So I guess you never can tell. Still, you do have to wonder about UConn. Maybe they just let themselves get so far behind because they thought, "Eh, we're playing Albany, we can dog it," and then Albany finally put them into "Oh, shit!" mode at the 11:30 mark, at which point it was over. Or maybe they are capable of falling behind early in any game and might meet a team which doesn't fold faster than a card table when UConn starts playing better. I guess we'll see.

Best "Fuck You" to Billy Packer: Even though it trashed my bracket, it was really kind of awesome seeing George Mason and Bradley, two of the last teams in the field and conspicuously mid-major, both get wins against power conference opponents on Friday. Packer railed against the committee for suggesting that the Missouri Valley was as good a league as the Big Twelve since they each had four bids... and then the MVC's last team in beats the Big Twelve champ in a head-to-head meeting. I hope Jim Nantz isn't kept awake by Packer's muffled crying in the next hotel room over.

Best Reason Not to Mess With Your Picks: Originally, I had North Carolina into the Elite Eight, but I wimped out on their youth at the last minute and switched it to Michigan State, because when they aren't losing in the first round (2004), they're doing quite well (a shock Final Four last year as a #5 and a shock Elite Eight in 2003 as a #7). Unfortunately, it seems like they alternate years these days, going out to a Tony Skinn-less George Mason team and submarining the entire bottom half of my East bracket.

Weekend Preview: Some storylines to consider for the upcoming two days of games:

1. Can Gonzaga finally get over the second-round jinx that's plagued them in every single-digit seed year?

2. Can UConn and Villanova regroup from closer-than-they-should-have-been opening round games to face seasoned 8-seed opposition?

3. Can the Cinderellas - George Mason, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Texas A&M (though as a major conference team, their inclusion on this list is a bit shaky), Montana, Bradley, and Northwestern State - keep dancing into the Sweet 16? Bradley could be the first #13 into the third round since Oklahoma in 1999, while NW State would be the first #14 to endure the first weekend since Chattanooga in 1997, and just the third ever.

4. Who will be the first top-two seed to fall? Duke, Tennessee, and UCLA all hit the court tomorrow; the Vols' narrow escape in Round One seems to make them the most likely candidate so far.

5. How many Sweet 16 teams will people manage to pick right? I've still got 13, but I've lost two Elite Eight teams and one Final Four squad (Kansas) already.