Oscar preview, Part 2: Long overdue-galoo

I didn't want to write my Oscar preview until I'd seen at least all five Best Picture nominees. But then I was stuck on three. And stuck... and stuck. Tonight, Alma and I finally saw Brokeback Mountain, and the Oscars are tomorrow night... so even though I still haven't seen Capote (and probably won't by tomorrow either), it's time for the annual Oscar Preview. It's more movies than I've seen by Oscar time in pretty any much any year but the last couple anyway.

Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck; Match Point; The Squid and the Whale; Syriana.
Should Win: I've seen three. Of those, I would pick Syriana; I wasn't a fan of Crash and GNGL seems like it only half belongs in this category.
Will Win: It's hard to imagine that Crash's bevy of nominations won't be paid off somewhere, but it seems blocked by the Brokeback wagon in most other categories. I'd give it good odds for this one.
Happy to Be Here: The Squid and the Whale, which it doesn't seem like anyone really saw and which has by far the longest odds in this category.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 8. Two movies (GNGL and Syriana) that are among my favorites of the year, versus one I think was painfully overrated (Crash). That's a rooting interest!

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Capote; The Constant Gardener; A History of Violence; Munich.
Should Win: I have actually seen just two of these, and I'm not sure I feel like either had an Oscar-worthy screenplay. I'll say Munich just because I feel like that one probably took more of what I liked about it from the screenplay than Brokeback Mountain did.
Will Win: Can the Brokeback bus be stopped? Not in this category.
Happy to Be Here: A History of Violence, one of a surprisingly large number of nominated films this year that really came out well before true "Oscar season" and which most people seem to have already forgotten about.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 1. I wouldn't be upset with a win by either film I saw, but I didn't like either enough to be upset if they lost, either.

Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Amy Adams, Junebug; Catherine Keener, Capote; Frances McDormand, North Country; Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener; Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain.
Should Win: I have seen just one. Williams was pretty good, and we know I'm a fan, so I'd be happy with that.
Will Win: Weisz won the Globe, so you'd like her odds. I'd say it's between her and Williams, but I just don't think Brokeback is so dominant it will win everything it touches.
Happy to Be Here: "Man, we're really having trouble filling out the Supporting Actress field this year... hey, wasn't Frances McDormand in some movie about sexual harassment? Let's stick her in there."
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: -7. It would be lower if Williams weren't so adorable.

Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: George Clooney, Syriana; Matt Dillon, Crash; Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man; Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain; William Hurt, A History of Violence.
Should Win: I've seen three. Clooney is good in Syriana; I liked him better in Good Night, and Good Luck, but since he's already got a Director nom for that we can't be too surprised that he was nominated for the other one. Gyllenhaal wasn't bad but not great. Dillon sucked.
Will Win: Clooney won the Globe. I think he takes this one too because the Academy will want to recognize his year, but there's no way he's going to get Director.
Happy to Be Here: Seriously, Matt Dillon as Crash's only acting nod? I mean, I didn't think it was good, but why not Don Cheadle if you have to have someone? Ironic that Hollywood chooses to acknowledge a movie about racism by rewarding the less talented white guy.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 6. I'd like to see Clooney win, but other than my anti-Dillon stance, I wouldn't be too bothered.

Best Actress
The Nominees: Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents; Felicity Huffman, Transamerica; Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice; Charlize Theron, North Country; Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.
Should Win: Oof. I've seen two of these, and I wouldn't call either Oscar-worthy. Can we just admit that Judi Dench only got nominated because she was in a movie? I bet most of the voters haven't even seen that film.
Will Win: This is definitely a two-horse race between Huffman and Witherspoon, who both won at the Globes. I guess it comes down to this: just how much does playing a transsexual get you? If people can't look past that to realize that Huffman's performance was actually kind of average, she'll probably win. Otherwise, I think there's probably a sort of "We're going to anoint Reese Witherspoon as Hollywood's new golden girl with this one!" feel to this category.
Happy to Be Here: Keep reciting "Academy Award nominee Keira Knightley" into the mirror, Keira, because I don't think you're getting too many more chances.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 1. I'd rather Huffman didn't win, but I'm pretty apathetic to the whole thing.

Best Actor
The Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote; Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow; Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain; Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line; David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Should Win: I'd love to see Strathairn walk away with it, but he won't.
Will Win: All accounts say this is Hoffman's to lose. If he doesn't win it, Phoenix most likely will; despite the Brokeback lovefest this may turn into, I don't see Ledger winning.
Happy to Be Here: Howard is a left-field nominee no matter how you spin it.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 6. I'd care more if the result didn't seem like such a fait accompli.

Best Director
The Nominees: George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck; Paul Haggis, Crash; Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain; Bennett Miller, Capote; Steven Spielberg, Munich.
Should Win: Tough call. I'm rooting for Clooney because I liked his movie the best - also, unlike Lee and Spielberg's films, it could not be accused of being overlong.
Will Win: Here's where the Brokeback wagon either reaches juggernaut status or loses the wheels. If Lee wins, and I think he will, it should keep rolling.
Happy to Be Here: Not to say anything about the quality of his film or its direction, but you have to figure Miller - basically making his feature debut - is ecstatic just to be among these names.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 9. Clooney has a much better chance of sneaking in for this one than GNGL itself does for Picture, so I'll be pulling for him. And very much against Haggis.

Best Picture
The Nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Capote; Crash; Good Night, and Good Luck; Munich.
Should Win: My pick is GNGL, though it doesn't have that "Best Picture" feel to it.
Will Win: You've gotta think it's Brokeback at this point.
Happy to Be Here: It feels like Capote rode in on Hoffman's coattails - really, have you heard much of anything about that film that wasn't related to him?
On a scale of 1 to 10, I care: 9. Well, it's Best Picture, after all. Just as long as Crash doesn't win, I'll be okay.

One interesting note: this is the first time since the 1982 Oscars (movies released in calendar year 1981) where every film nominated for Best Picture has also been represented in the Best Director category. Does that seem odd? I always find it a bit strange when the same film doesn't sweep the two (especially as that's a relatively rare occurrence) - what are you judging the director on if not "quality of finished film?" If a guy couldn't make the best film of the year, what makes him the best director? On the other hand, if you're not finding some distinction, I guess they might as well not even be two separate categories. It's like the difference between "Record of the Year" and "Album of the Year" at the Grammys - there apparently is one, but I'll be damned if I know what it's really supposed to be. The only real difference is basically who the award is presented to, which is the case with the Oscars too.