Flaxetology

Selection Sunday. The most wonderful day of the year? Not quite... but it's gotta be top ten in an average year.

In most years I would just sit back and watch things develop, but this year I've decided to take something of a stab at projecting the field. Of course, I'm doing it before the Sunday finals (of which there are only four anyway), but let's see if I can get even remotely close. Why not?

#1s: Duke, Connecticut, Villanova, Memphis

At first blush these don't seem like very bold predictions. But projecting Memphis as a #1 while Ohio State still has a Big Ten final to play is at least a little risky. A four-loss team with a Big Ten tournament (and regular season) title would certainly be a tempting #1, but Memphis had more impressive out-of-conference scalps; while OSU had just LSU (at home), Memphis took down Alabama, UCLA, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, and Tennessee. I think the Tigers can hold on to this spot. Either way, they and Ohio State will most likely end up on opposite sides of the same region (almost certainly the West).

#2s: Ohio State, Texas, Gonzaga, North Carolina

Other potential candidates for UNC's spot - which I think is the least secure of the four - include Illinois and a surging Boston College - but even though both of those teams own wins over UNC (BC's coming in Saturday's ACC semi), I give UNC the edge by virtue of their win over then-#1 Duke at Cameron Indoor on March 4. Neither BC nor Illinois has that kind of statement win.

#3s: Illinois, Boston College, UCLA, LSU

Some SEC team has to end up here. I take LSU despite their loss to Florida in the SEC semis because Florida's OOC schedule was so weak. UCLA's romping to the Pac-10 tourney title is impressive even in a down year. BC could swap spots with UNC if they manage to beat Duke in the ACC final (the ACC final always seems to carry a disproportionate amount of weight with the committee), but I'll take a chance and say they aren't able to.

#4s: Kansas, Florida, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

Few teams helped their seeding in the past couple days as much as Pitt, even though they lost in the finals to Syracuse. By contrast, Tennessee seemed like a lock for a #2 seed just three weeks ago; their free-fall - the win over Florida notwithstanding - makes even this #4 seem like a possible stretch. But then, who else could get it?

#5s: George Washington, Washington, Iowa, West Virginia

Not a very convincing seed line, if you ask me. GW probably can't get any higher at this point, and missing Pops means they might even drop to #6 (but no lower). Iowa's run to the Big Ten final earns them this spot. WV has a shocking number of losses - including six of their last nine! - but wins at Oklahoma, UCLA, and Villanova make them as good a candidate for this spot as anyone, ten losses or no.

#6s: Oklahoma, Georgetown, Arkansas, Marquette

Even more uninspired picks here. But I'm not sure I see the mid-majors creeping this high (maybe Nevada), so who else do you throw up here? At least there are some big wins in the group: Georgetown over Duke, Marquette over UConn, Arkansas over Kansas.

#7s: NC State, Wisconsin, California, Nevada

Nevada hasn't lost since January. None of their counterparts are that hot - though Cal's run to the Pac-10 final gets them up this high.

#8s: Syracuse, Wichita State, UAB, Indiana

Syracuse and Indiana, probably the two teams in the field whose tournament performances helped them the most. Syracuse went from out, to barely in, to all but a lock, to the automatic bid in just four days. They could slide up maybe even one more line depending (NC State limped down the stretch).

#9s: Southern Illinois, Arizona, Kentucky, Northern Iowa

Two struggling traditional powers and two MVC upstarts. UNI's slightly more impressive OOC performance about equalizes SIU's tourney win. Kentucky might have moved higher if they hadn't lost to South Carolina. Arizona might be lucky to be this high.

#10s: NC-Wilmington, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Bucknell

Cincy is one of the last at-large teams in, but I would keep them ahead of the competition (see the next two seed lines) for now. Many see Bucknell as an 11, but they did go unbeaten in their league, and the win over Syracuse looks better than it has in months.

#11s: San Diego State, Bradley, Texas A&M, Alabama

SDSU was a dicey at-large candidate, but holding on for the Mountain West tourney win should push them to an 11. Bradley's run to the MVC finals got them in, while A&M did well to win their elimination game with Colorado by a huge margin. Alabama had a mediocre record in the OOC, but at least they played some tough games to compile it.

#12s: Missouri State, Xavier, George Mason, Florida State

Any of these teams (save Xavier, auto-bid winners in the A-10) could be bumped if South Carolina wins the SEC tournament. FSU is probably the first to go after their weak exit to a bad Wake team in the ACC tourney's first round. GMU's position is a bit dicey as well, however, because of Tony Skinn's absence for any first-round game. (When you're that close to the edge, you don't want any "without this player they go down a rung" cases.) Seton Hall's loss to Rutgers (and their generally inconsistent form all year) makes them the first team out for me, but in theory they could swap with one of the at-larges on this line.

#13s: Kent State, South Alabama, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Pacific

Probably the four strongest of the auto-bid winners from the clear one-bid leagues. Incidentally, if South Carolina wins the SEC they'll probably show up here; UWM seems most likely to move up to the #12 in that event.

#14s: Winthrop, Northwestern State, Iona, Murray State

Northwestern State is the only one not assuredly in yet. If Sam Houston wins that bid instead, they could drop to a 15 and either Oral Roberts or Penn move up to this line.

#15s: Montana, Davidson, Oral Roberts, Penn

This actually seems like a fairly feisty crop of 15s.

#16s: Southern, Monmouth, Hampton, Albany, Belmont

And, of course, the B-O-B - bottom of the barrel. Monmouth and Hampton will probably end up in the play-in game; neither was a regular-season winner and Belmont was at least a #2 seed.

So that's that. Let's see how it plays out.