Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Cubs suck

Well, really, Glendon Rusch sucks, and Will Ohman sucks too. But how do you only score two runs in a game started by Bronson Arroyo? The last time he came to Wrigley Field, the Cubs scored seven runs on 10 hits in four innings in a 14-6 win on June 10, 2005. Now they're already 0-2 against him this year? Also, why does he have two home runs? I wasn't expecting Rusch to be the second coming of Milt Pappas, but this is embarrassing. Though fortunately, at the current rate, the Cubs should finish approximately 130-32, losing only Rusch's starts.

On to better things. The Cubs locked Derrek Lee in for five years at $13 million each - and yeah, that's a ton of money to give a guy based pretty much on a single season, even if that season was completely fucking awesome. On the other hand, early returns are favorable this year, and I'd rather have the Cubs overpay for a guy who reverts to .280-30-100 form than let a guy go who can go .330-45-110 for the next few years. Remember what happened when they didn't want to pay Greg Maddux in 1992.

Speaking of transactions the Cubs have fucked up, I was talking on a message board last night and noting that, right now, the Lee trade is looking like one of the better moves the Cubs have ever made. Then I went down the line and realized that, apart from a couple of particularly infamous bad moves, the Cubs haven't been quite as miserable, at least on the trading front, as we might like to think over the years. Thus, a pair of lists.

The Five Worst Trades in Cubs History

Honorable Mention: Every trade bringing a washed-up veteran to Wrigley
Until very recently, the Cubs had a long and storied history of trading for guys who were well past their prime, like they were trying to increase the gate by trotting out old superstars or something. Among the one-time stars who played briefly for the Cubs late in their careers and did little to nothing: Dizzy Dean, Jimmie Foxx (though he was actually claimed off waivers), Ralph Kiner (decent, but never the 50/120 guy he'd been five years earlier), Monte Irvin (a Rule V draftee, but again, in his last season), Bobby Thomson, Richie Ashburn, Lew Burdette, Robin Roberts (again, not a trade, but it was his last stop), Bobby Bonds, and Ron Cey (who, astonishingly, hit 25 homers and knocked in 97 for the '84 Cubs, though he hit just .240 - he also held down the third base spot for several years, against all odds). And that's just the half-century between 1934 and 1984.

5. March 27, 2002: Cubs trade Dontrelle Willis, Julian Tavarez, Ryan Jorgensen, and Jose Cueto to Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca.
This isn't exactly the quintessential "mortgaging minor-league talent bites you in the ass" example along the lines of the Red Sox giving away Jeff Bagwell for 15 games of Larry Andersen in 1990, but it hasn't exactly worked out that well long-term for the Cubs, which is the only real way to judge these things. Clement went 35-36 in three seasons with the Cubs, his best coming in 2003, when his 14-12 record "helped" the Cubs to the NLCS. (Worth noting: Clement did win his only start in that LCS.) Alfonseca, one of the last times the Cubs tried to find a closer by picking someone who had done it for a while and then washed out somewhere else, saved just 19 games in Chicago; El Pulpo was replaced by Joe Borowski in 2003 and went to Atlanta after the season. Meanwhile, Willis has become one of baseball's hottest young pitching stars, breaking through with a 22-10 record for Florida in 2005. And it's not like the Cubs need starting pitching or anything.

4. April 3, 1987: Cubs trade Dennis Eckersley and Dan Rohn to A's for three minor-leaguers.
Eck started 81 games for the Cubs in two-plus years, then started just two the rest of his career, as Oakland turned him into one of the most dominant closers in the history of the game. This one may not be entirely fair, since "make him a closer" would have been thinking way outside the box for most teams, but the fact remains that the Cubs gave away 390 career saves and an ERA of 0.61 in 1990.

3. February 11, 1977: Cubs trade Bill Madlock and Rob Sperring to Giants for Bobby Murcer, Steve Ontiveros, and Andy Muhlstock.
Let's say you have a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher on your team. It only makes sense to ship him out after one bad year for a rookie third baseman, doesn't it? However, if the Cubs looked bad when they traded Fergie Jenkins to Texas for Madlock in 1973, it worked out for them - Jenkins won 25 games in 1974, but Madlock won batting titles in two of his three years with the Cubs. Then, cementing the jinx on their hot corner, the Cubs sent the 25-year-old two-time batting champion to San Francisco for washed-up ex-Yankee Murcer. They ended up shipping him back to the Bronx after two undistinguished seasons; Madlock won two more batting titles and a World Series ring with the 1979 Pirates.

2. December 5, 1988: Cubs trade Rafael Palmeiro, Jamie Moyer, and Drew Hall to Rangers for Mitch Williams, Paul Kilgus, Steve Wilson, Curtis Wilkerson, and two minor-leaguers.
Typical Cub thinking, embodied both here and in the Madlock deal - if one great hitter is good, then two mediocre hitters are even better! It's like the management was making deals exclusively based on how many players they were getting back, which is sort of like hitting on 19 because you don't have 21 yet. Palmeiro's 1988 year was something of a breakout season, as he hit .307; the Cubs immediately traded him for a sketchy closer who lasted just two seasons in Chicago and five other guys who were, even at the time, total nobodies. The real kicker is that Moyer ended up winning more than 200 games for his career after starting 28-34 in three seasons with the Cubs; he was probably included mostly so the Rangers would get some pitching back. Of course, Moyer didn't put together a 20-win season until he was 38, in 2001, so it's not like this one backfired hideously or soon.

1. June 15, 1964: Cubs trade Lou Brock, Jack Spring, and Paul Toth to Cardinals for Ernie Broglio, Bobby Shantz, and Doug Clemens.
Brock-for-Broglio was the centerpiece of this deal; none of the other four players had done much before or after. At the time it probably looked like the Cubs were getting a steal. Brock, a young outfielder, had a fair amount of speed but was only an average bat, hitting .258 in 1963 and just .251 through 52 games for the Cubs in '64. Broglio, on the other hand, had been a 20-game winner in 1960 and was 18-8 with an ERA under 3.00 in 1963. Then the trade happened, and it was like Brock turned into the ghost of Ty Cobb and Broglio turned into a t-ball stand. Ernie was 4-7 for the Cubs down the stretch in '64; Lou rapped out 146 hits in 103 games, hitting .348 and stealing 33 bases en route to a Cardinals World Series title. Brock's finish was so strong he finished tenth in the NL MVP balloting, not exactly common for a player who changed teams midseason. The rest of it we know; Brock topped 3,000 hits, stole 938 bases (including 118 in 1974), and ended up in the Hall of Fame. Broglio went 3-12 in 1965 and 1966 combined, with ERAs well over 6.00 each year, and never pitched in the majors again. Aside from the Babe Ruth sale, there may not be a more lopsided result from a trade in the history of baseball.

So this is getting a little long. I hope the Cubs fans in attendance, at least, will bear with me for the best trades in Cubs history.

The Five Best Trades in Cubs History

Honorable Mentions: Cubs get Ferguson Jenkins from Phillies and he wins 147 games in seven-plus years; Cubs get Rick Sutcliffe from Indians and he goes 16-1 (points off for trading Joe Carter and because Sutcliffe never quite recaptured that magic in seven additional seasons); Cubs trade Sammy Sosa to Orioles just before he turns into a complete stiff.

5. July 23, 2003: Cubs trade Jose Hernandez, Bobby Hill, and Matt Bruback to Pirates for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton.
Lofton was a rental for the '03 playoff run, but Ramirez looks like he's going to be the guy who finally fills the hole at third left largely vacant by a true talent in his prime since Madlock was shipped out of town. A legit .300/30/100 guy, Ramirez has also brought his errors way down since joining the Cubs (and he hit four home runs in those 2003 playoffs).

4. November 25, 2003: Cubs trade Hee Seop Choi and Mike Nannini to Marlins for Derrek Lee.
Say what you will about the Marlins, but they know how to run a fire sale. Lee was a legit .280-30-100 candidate with Florida; with the Cubs, he's turned into a .330-45-110 guy. Time will tell if Lee justifies his big extension by putting out more Triple Crown caliber seasons - fingers crossed - but even if he reverts to earlier form he's yet to be approached by Choi in terms of production.

3. December 12, 1903: Cubs trade Jack Taylor and Larry McLean to Cardinals for Mordecai Brown and Jack O'Neill.
Maybe the Brock deal was just karmic payback for this one. Taylor was okay for the Cards for a couple years, but Brown only became the backbone of one of the most dominant teams in baseball history, the 1906-1909 Cubs who averaged well over 100 victories a year (including 116 in 1906) and played in three World Series, winning the franchise's only two to date (in 1907 and 1908, of course). Brown had six straight 20-win seasons for the Cubs (1906-1911) and recorded six years of sub-2.00 ERAs, including his 1.04 doozy in '06.

2. January 27, 1982: Cubs trade Ivan DeJesus to Phillies for Ryne Sandberg and Larry Bowa.
Bowa was in the twilight of his career, and he still stayed with the Cubs longer than DeJesus stayed in Philadelphia. With that virtual wash out of the way, it's like the Cubs got Ryno for nothing at all. Sandberg, of course, went on to an MVP year in 1984 (as he led the Cubs to within a game of the Series), nine Gold Gloves, ten All-Star Games, two more top-five MVP finishes, and the Hall of Fame.

1. March 30, 1992: Cubs trade George Bell to White Sox for Sammy Sosa and Ken Patterson.
Maybe this is why White Sox fans hate the Cubs so much. Bell had two great seasons for Toronto in the mid-80s, but his best years were behind him by 1992, the .255/25/112 he put up for the White Sox that year being more or less emblematic of that. One more year (in which he hit .217) and he was out of baseball. Sosa, despite the acrimonious ending, became the face of the Cubs for the better part of a decade, stepping into Ryno's stardom void with a breakout 36/119 season in 1995 (Sandberg's first retirement year). I wouldn't be shocked to hear that Sosa's stats helped lure Sandberg back for two more years at age 36, but this was already turning into Sammy's team. Between 1995 and 2003, Sosa hit 444 homers and drove in 1,146 runs. The steroid cloud hangs over him now, and he was probably on something at some point, but Sosa was a 30/100 candidate as early as 1993 (though he was also a 30/30 guy back then), so it's not like his power was completely inorganic. Either way, he was a fan favorite until just before the end, and he led the Cubs to two playoff appearances - as many as they'd had in the 46 years before his arrival - and within five outs of a date with Destiny in 2003.

Thoughts? Disagreements?

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