2013 NCAA Tournament Picks

Before I get started, a warning: these picks are almost certainly going to turn out to be terrible.  I finished dead last in my pool the last two years, which isn't exactly much of a track record, and I can't say I follow college basketball obsessively outside of the tournament itself.  With that said, I'm going to go ahead and make them anyway.  Just, caveat emptor, is all.

Midwest Region
(1) Louisville vs. (16) North Carolina A&T/Liberty
(8) Colorado State vs. (9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Oregon
(4) Saint Louis vs. (13) New Mexico State
(6) Memphis vs. (11) Middle Tennessee/St. Mary's
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Valparaiso
(7) Creighton vs. (10) Cincinnati
(2) Duke vs. (15) Albany

Most Likely to Emerge

Obviously the most likely to emerge tends to be the top seed, and Louisville is the hottest team in the region, with just one loss since January (and that was on the road and in five overtimes).  People have talked about how this region is tough for Louisville, but is it really that tough before the possible Elite Eight matchup with Duke or Michigan State?  I know Saint Louis has also been hot (also only one loss since January, also in overtime on the road), and I know they're a good defensive team, but I have a hard time totally buying them.  It doesn't help that they start in San Jose against New Mexico State, a team that is top 50 in both rebounds and field goal percentage, is used to playing out west, and has won 18 of their last 20.  I'm not saying Saint Louis will definitely get upset, but to even get to Louisville in the Sweet 16 will be a grind for them.  I have Louisville in the Final Four.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

After what I just said you might think Saint Louis, but I think it's actually Oklahoma State.  Don't forget that Oregon was ranked tenth in the country as late as the end of January before a late-season skid (losing six of their last eleven regular-season games) sent them tumbling, and even a Pac-12 tournament title only got them a 12 seed.  They're underseeded if you ask me, and Oklahoma State is an unconvincing powerhouse.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

I'm not really convinced there is one.  People will tell you Saint Louis because their defense is so good, but again, I'm just not seeing it.  I might go with seventh-seeded Creighton because they can score (and led the country in field-goal percentage) and because of Doug McDermott; a team with one great player can always get hot.  But even getting past defensive-minded Cincinnati will be a challenge and I don't see Creighton taking out Duke unless McDermott scores about 50.  But let's say Creighton because this is pretty much the same Duke team that fell on its face in the first round a year ago.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

Well, your options are the Creighton/Cincinnati winner (or Albany, I guess) taking out Duke, or the winner of Colorado State/Missouri taking out Louisville.  I'm not buying Colorado State and Louisville already pounded Missouri on a neutral court once this season.  Creighton could beat Duke with points, or Cincinnati could beat them with stifling D, but I think this bracket is likely to see its top dogs win at least two games.

Picks

Louisville over Missouri
Oregon over Saint Louis
Michigan State over St. Mary's
Duke over Creighton

Louisville over Oregon
Michigan State over Duke

Louisville over Michigan State

West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Southern University
(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Wichita State
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Mississippi
(4) Kansas State vs. (13) Boise State/LaSalle
(6) Arizona vs. (11) Belmont
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Harvard
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Iowa State
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Iona

Most Likely to Emerge

I've been waiting weeks to pick against Gonzaga in this bracket.  I'm sure they're good and all, but the West Coast Conference means they've played exactly one tournament team - St. Mary's, one of the last four in - since a loss to Butler on January 19.  They haven't won a game over a tournament team other than St. Mary's since December.  As impressive as it is that they've only lost twice, they simply don't have the schedule of the other top teams.  Assuming you buy the Mountain West and Atlantic Ten as tough conferences this year - and with each getting five teams in, more than the ACC, the committee appeared to - you have to go all the way down to Memphis on the #6 line to find another supposed powerhouse with so little challenge on its recent schedule.  Gonzaga could well go down the minute they get punched in the face, like they did in 2004, when they were seeded #2 (their previous highest seed) and fell to Nevada in the second round.  Gonzaga has yet to show they can be the favorites.  In fact, since their shock run to the Elite Eight as a #10 seed in 1999, you know how many times they've been back there?  Zero!  I know those were all different teams, but still.  I don't buy Gonzaga as a Final Four team, I'm sorry.

So who comes out?  Favor Ohio State.  I don't trust any of the other high seeds in this region, and while me saying that has been a recipe for disaster before (hello, 1998 Midwest regional), Ohio State isn't exactly TCU; they were in the Final Four just last year.  Jared Sullinger may be gone, but OSU still has talent and they're battle-tested - since the start of February, they've played just four games out of thirteen against non-tournament teams.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

Gonzaga is probably talented enough to get out of the first round, unfortunately - although the part of me that desperately wants to see a 16 seed win a game would be somewhat disappointed if it were Gonzaga and not a traditional power anyway.  Keep an eye on New Mexico, but I'd really take a look at Wisconsin.  Like Oregon, Ole Miss seems underseeded to me at #12 - probably because the SEC was down this year, they were in the worse half of it on top of that, and their nonconference schedule stunk.  Well, maybe they're not underseeded.  But with Marshall Henderson raining threes they're dangerous.  Wisconsin doesn't score or shoot the ball very well, and Ole Miss is a top-20 rebounding team.  This game will largely depend on Henderson; if Wisconsin's defense can lock him down, the Badgers probably win.  But if Henderson hits five or six threes and Wisconsin gets outmuscled on the glass, I like this one for the Rebels.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

Kansas State is a strong consideration.  Wisconsin always seems capable of making a run if they can avoid stumbling early just because their defense is so good.  And don't sleep on the Pitt/Wichita State winner... whoever that is.  But keep an eye on Arizona.  This is a team that was top-five for most of the first half of the season and owns wins over Florida and Miami, the latter decisively.  They have lost six of their last seven against teams that made the field (and it should be seven of their last eight thanks to that Colorado screwjob), but they have a lot of pedigree and what I think is the easiest #3 seed matchup on the board in the second round (New Mexico).  They do have to get past a tricky first-round tilt with Belmont, but after that, one great game against Ohio State could be the biggest hurdle to a surprise run to Atlanta.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

Since I've picked Ohio State to make the Final Four, saying yes here means that I have to think Gonzaga will go down in the second round.  So I'll say... yes!  I don't particularly trust Gonzaga and Pitt has a real shot as long as they don't get completely outworked on the boards (and assuming they get past Wichita State, of course).  I'm less convinced that Wichita State can do it, especially since they don't shoot the three very well, but Gonzaga is vulnerable - remember, Loyola Marymount, one of the worst teams in the country, hung with them for a half in the WCC tournament final - and I like the chances they bow out early.

Picks

Pittsburgh over Gonzaga
Mississippi over Kansas State
Arizona over New Mexico
Ohio State over Notre Dame

Pittsburgh over Mississippi
Ohio State over Arizona

Ohio State over Pittsburgh

South Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Western Kentucky
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Villanova
(5) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (12) Akron
(4) Michigan vs. (13) South Dakota State
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Minnesota
(3) Florida vs. (14) Northwestern State
(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Oklahoma
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast

Most Likely to Emerge

Some people like Georgetown, and Michigan has had its moments this season, but for me this region is between Kansas and Florida.  As good as the Jayhawks have been at times this season, they have a puzzling tendency to go to sleep on occasion, most notably their February 6 loss to TCU (one of just two conference wins for the Horned Frogs) and their 81-58 drubbing at the hands of non-tournament team Baylor on March 9 with sole possession of the conference regular season title at stake.  The bad news for Kansas is that their road to the Final Four includes several potential land mines against teams equipped to punish that lapse in concentration.  North Carolina has struggled against top teams this year but they're always talented and are coming off two straight Elite Eight appearances.  The Sweet 16 could feature a matchup with VCU, which shocked Kansas two years ago and always plays tough defense, or Michigan, a team ranked #1 in the nation as recently as February 2 and possibly underseeded thanks to a dicey run-in.  Any of those teams could take Kansas out even if the Jayhawks don't mysteriously take a game off.  Meanwhile, Florida has been to two straight Elite Eights, is one of the top shooting teams in the country, and has an easier route to the Elite Eight in my book.  I'm taking them to the Final Four.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

Two years ago, VCU's run from one of the last four teams in the field - and a team many thought had no business making it at all - to the Final Four was one of the most amazing stories in tournament history.  This year, VCU has a new conference (trading up from the Colonial to the Atlantic Ten) and their highest seed since 1985.  So often in the tournament, highly-seeded mid-majors can stumble under the weight of expectation when they're used to being the underdog.  It doesn't help VCU to be in the 5-12 game (historically the most prone to upsets) nor facing a team in Akron from a conference, the Mid-American, that relishes the underdog status as much as the Colonial used to.  (Akron's MAC colleague Ohio went on a Sweet 16 run just last year and nearly made the Elite Eight.)  Truth be told, I'm not sure VCU is a great matchup for Akron - the Zips aren't the best free throw shooting team, an advantage you'd like to have when facing a team known for its defense - but history says VCU is at risk.  Florida and Michigan also both have chances to stumble - the Gators face Northwestern State, the nation's top-scoring team, and Michigan is in trouble if Nate Wolters decides to go all Stephen Curry on them - but I'd put VCU's odds the best.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

I was entertained to see Jay Bilas pick VCU to come out of this region considering he was one of the loudest voices against their initial selection two years ago; doing his penance, I guess.  For me, you have to look at #4 Michigan, which at the end of January had one loss and was ranked #1 in the country.  They did struggle on the way in, but get their stars going and they'll be as tough an out as anyone, and a very dangerous matchup for Kansas in the Sweet 16.  I'm still taking Kansas, but if that top subregional breaks down at all, Michigan easily has the tools to take advantage.  If you want to look even deeper than the #4 line, try #8 North Carolina.  Yes, they disappointed in a down year for the ACC, but Roy Williams has two national titles and probably wouldn't mind bouncing his former employers in the second round.  If they can get rolling, it could just be a matter of outplaying Florida or Georgetown for 40 minutes to get to Atlanta.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

North Carolina (or Villanova) toppling Kansas seems more likely to me even though I buy Kansas over Georgetown generally; I just don't think much of that San Diego State/Oklahoma pairing as Georgetown's possible second round opponent.  Going to say it won't happen in this region.

Picks

Kansas over North Carolina
Michigan over Akron
Florida over UCLA
Georgetown over Oklahoma

Kansas over Michigan
Florida over Georgetown

Florida over Kansas

East Region
(1) Indiana vs. (16) James Madison/Long Island
(8) North Carolina State vs. (9) Temple
(5) UNLV vs. (12) California
(4) Syracuse vs. (13) Montana
(6) Butler vs. (11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Davidson
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Colorado
(2) Miami vs. (15) Pacific

Most Likely to Emerge

There are three obvious candidates: former #1 Indiana, Miami (once ranked as high as #2), and Syracuse (once ranked as high as #3).  Marquette has made noise in the past and could again, but I'm not really feeling it.  You'd have to like Indiana... which is kind of why I don't.  The Hoosiers have rarely responded well to success this season, giving up their early #1 ranking with a loss to Butler in December, climbing back to #2 only to lose to Wisconsin, reaching #1 again with a win over then-#1 Michigan only to turn around and fall to Illinois, managing to hold the #1 ranking after that loss and beating Ohio State and Michigan State only to give up the #1 spot for good with a loss to Minnesota, followed by a loss to Ohio State on Senior Night.  I don't think the Sweet 16 is a problem for Indiana but I'm hesitant to pick them.  Miami, by comparison, flew under the radar much of the year - as late as January 21, they weren't even ranked (thanks in large part to awful early-season losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State).  Then they beat Duke 90-63 and everyone sat up and took notice.  Even in a down year for the ACC, 15-3 in conference is nothing to sneeze at, and Miami added the tournament title for good measure, in the process becoming the first team in history to win the ACC's regular season and tournament titles and not get a #1 seed in the NCAAs.  But maybe that slight suggestion of being undervalued will be added fuel.  And coach Jim Larranaga knows what it's like to reach the Final Four, having gone there with George Mason in 2006.  As for Syracuse, they've struggled the past two months but could put it together at any time.  Personally, I'm going to take Miami.  Teams that are rarely high seeds seem often to struggle when put in that spot, but I'm hopeful that the ACC gauntlet has toughened the Canes up a bit.


Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

Syracuse and Marquette are both at some risk against lower-seeded teams that know what it's like to win in March - #13 Montana won a 12-5 upset in 2006 and can really shoot, while #14 Davidson went to the Elite Eight in 2008 and gave eventual Final Four team Louisville all they wanted in the first round last year.  I'll say Syracuse is more likely because Montana shoots it well and because Syracuse sometimes struggles in these early games - last year as a #1 seed they came as close as any #1 has to losing since about 1996.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

Since I mentioned Syracuse earlier, you have to look at them, but that's a pretty light "dark horse."  You want to go deep, consider #6 Butler - a team that knows what it's like to go to the Final Four, though personally I think they're at real risk against #11 Bucknell - as well as #7 Illinois and #8 North Carolina State, both of whom were highly ranked early in the year before fading due to early conference struggles.  Both own wins over #1 teams (Illinois beat Indiana and NC State took out Duke).  Illinois fell out of favor in the polls when they lost seven of their first nine Big Ten games, including an awful home loss to Northwestern, but this is still the same team that beat Gonzaga by 11 in Spokane, and if Brandon Paul decides to score 35 points like he did in that game, Illinois can beat anyone.  Likewise, NC State can get hot if C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell are scoring and crashing the boards.  I'm not sure that's enough to get them by Indiana in the second round, but if they do, what's stopping them from making a deep run?

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

I like Indiana and Miami to meet in the Elite Eight, so I'm going to say no, but because of the potential of Illinois and NC State, I don't think you can rule it out entirely.

Picks

Indiana over North Carolina State
Syracuse over UNLV
Marquette over Bucknell
Miami over Illinois

Indiana over Syracuse
Miami over Marquette

Miami over Indiana

Final Four
(MW1) Louisville vs. (W2) Ohio State
(S3) Florida vs. (E2) Miami

I like Louisville and Miami to meet in the finals.  Both teams seem to be peaking at the right time.  For the champions, I'll take Miami.  Sort of a risky pick, but it's no fun picking a powerhouse like Louisville that already has a couple of titles under its belt (to say nothing of Rick Pitino's history).  83-79 the final.  So, go out and pick the exact opposite of everything I said here.

Talking bracket

I always feel like college basketball is like a class I didn't go to. I don't pay too much attention during the season, but then comes the last couple weeks and suddenly I'm cramming like crazy for the final. This year is no exception. The question is, does seeing a team several times in the conference tournament really tell you what they're all about, and how likely they might be to succeed in the NCAAs? Well, I guess we'll find out. Let's take a look at the brackets.

South Region

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) MVSU/WKU
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut
(5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh

Most Likely to Emerge

Well, you'd have to say Kentucky, of course. They have two losses this year - one was in the SEC tournament final, and the other was an early-season buzzer-beater loss to Indiana... who, curiously, is on track to face the Wildcats in the Sweet 16. That's if you believe the Hoosiers can make it that far, of course; with a trio of dangerous mid-majors in their pod, don't be surprised if they don't. I watched Duke play a bit in the ACC Tournament and came away unconvinced, but aside from maybe Baylor I don't know who really scares me before the Elite Eight if I'm Duke. Still, with a vulnerable two seed, Kentucky are clear favorites.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

Poor Wichita State. They had a great season, but they fell prey to the committee's seeming yearly tendency to put a strong mid-major on the 4-5-6 line and then pair them against one of the feistiest teams at the 11-12-13. In this case, it's VCU, the, oh yeah, DEFENDING SOUTHWEST REGIONAL CHAMPIONS and apparently hitting their stride at the right time. Wichita State could go to the Sweet 16, or they could be headed home early.

Baylor and Indiana are both playing teams that can score, but it's always hard to know how putting up bunches of points in the WAC (as New Mexico State does) is going to translate to facing a Big Ten defense. I think it's likely both Baylor and Indiana escape their first round games (I refuse to call it the second round just because of the play-ins, sorry), but don't be shocked to see either game come down to the final few possessions.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

Is there even one in this region? If forced to choose, I might cast my lot in with #6 UNLV - they score, they rebound, and they own a ten-point win over North Carolina, a more dominant defeat than either Kentucky or Duke (one point each) managed over the Tar Heels. If they're to go far, expect possible shootouts with both Baylor and Duke.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

I doubt it. While I think Duke is vulnerable, I don't like either Notre Dame or Xavier to beat them (those teams are too inconsistent themselves). Kentucky faces an interesting potential second-round test in defending champ UConn, but talk about inconsistent - the Huskies were just 8-10 in what I didn't think was that great of a Big East this year, and also count a loss to Central Florida among their "accomplishments."

West Region

(1) Michigan State vs. (16) LIU-Brooklyn
(8) Memphis vs. (9) St. Louis
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State
(3) Marquette vs. (14) BYU/Iona
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State

Most Likely to Emerge

I suppose "most likely to emerge" is probably a silly category in some ways, since by definition a top three seed will be "most likely." Sentimentality has me leaning toward Michigan State, and they've been tested. Missouri, as good as they've been this year, runs the risk of being that team that has a huge year out of semi-nowhere (the Tigers were an 11 last year) and then stumbles early (see Gonzaga's #2 seed in 2004 for a key example; San Diego State and Notre Dame last year are recent examples). A lot of pressure comes with a high seed line and some teams aren't up to matching it. Plus, Marquette was in the Sweet 16 just last year and poses a tough matchup for Mizzou in the Sweet 16 (which I do think they'll probably get to).

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

#5 New Mexico sort of fills the Wichita State role in this region - and #12 Long Beach State fills the dangerous sleeper role. While the victory that put LBSU on the map (a win at then-#9 Pitt on November 16) was rendered mediocre by later results, the 49ers still have a win over Xavier on a neutral court and competitive losses at Kansas and North Carolina (and Creighton) in their back pocket. If Casper Ware gets going, the Lobos could be in real trouble.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

#4 Louisville has been there before - in 2005 they made the Final Four as a 4 seed against the lowest-rated #1 (Washington), and they made the Elite Eight in both 2008 (as a 3 seed) and 2009 (as a 1 seed), the latter of which they lost to Michigan State (then the #2). Think the Cardinals might be up for a little revenge? They looked pretty good in running to the Big East tournament title and easily handling ranked teams Marquette and Notre Dame. Then again, this is most of the same team that tripped against #13 Morehead State last year, so watch out.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

Probably not. Missouri may be risky, but their potential second-round opponents are Florida (lost four of their last five) and Virginia (lost five of their last eight), hardly hot hands at the moment. Michigan State may be the weakest one seed, at least by seeding, but I doubt Memphis (or Saint Louis) will have enough against them.

East Region

(1) Syracuse vs. (16) NC-Asheville
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (MD)

Most Likely to Emerge

Ready for a semi-shocker? I'm going with Florida State. I watched Syracuse twice in the Big East Tournament and did not like what I saw at all. Maybe that doesn't outweigh their dominant regular season, but this team isn't great at rebounding, so all you need to do is force them into an off shooting night. My guess is someone will. Ohio State could make it out as well, but I really liked what I saw from the Seminoles against UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament. With my luck this will turn out to be a classic overreaction and they'll trip against St. Bonaventure, but for now I'm sticking with it.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

#5 Vanderbilt has a recent history of falling flat on their damn faces, losing first-round games in this pod in 2008 (a 21-point loss to #13 Siena), 2010 (66-65 to #13 Murray State) and 2011 (69-66 to #12 Richmond). Would you bet on that team? Their win in the SEC Tournament does seem to set them up better this year, but Harvard already owns a win over Florida State this season and shoots the ball even better than Vanderbilt does. Wisconsin, which doesn't do any one thing particularly well, is also at risk against Montana, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Badgers make the Sweet 16 (although so could Harvard if things break right for them).

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

At #8, Kansas State (which owns a sweep of Missouri this year) is criminally underseeded - and they could make Syracuse pay by banging the boards and taking the Orange down in Round Two. If that happens, the Wildcats might just be poised to run all the way to New Orleans.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

It's hard to say they DEFINITELY will. And I don't see Ohio State losing. But I really think Kansas State can take out Syracuse - assuming they get to them. Let's say there's a... 30% chance it happens. I just made that up.

Midwest Region

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Lamar/Vermont
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama
(5) Temple vs. (12) Cal/South Florida
(4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont
(7) St. Mary's vs. (10) Purdue
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit

Most Likely to Emerge

It's probably North Carolina, but I have the feeling that if one region is going to break way down, it might be this one.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

Any of Georgetown, Michigan or Temple could go down - I think they're all vulnerable. Belmont shoots the lights out, nearly won at Cameron Indoor in November, and draws a Hoyas team with a recent history of nosedives (getting the doors blown off by VCU last year as a six seed, losing by 14 points to #14 seed Ohio in 2010). Speaking of Ohio, there they are at the 13, and I'm not sold on Michigan. Temple draws the winner of Cal/South Florida, an awful matchup in my estimation, but so was USC/VCU on paper. Forced to pick one, I'll go with Georgetown.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

If you believe in Michigan, they work in this spot - on paper they're clearly the best team in their pod, and after nearly upsetting Duke last year they might be primed to take out UNC. But I'm not sure I believe in them. Take a look - I'm serious - at #7 St. Mary's. They're the kind of team that's toppled Kansas recently (VCU last year, Northern Iowa in 2010), and they went to the Sweet 16 as a ten seed just two years ago. And if they can get to the Sweet 16 and Georgetown lost in the first round, then the best possible team awaiting them is San Diego State... and if they can make the Elite Eight, anything can happen. Of course, they do have to get past Purdue first.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

I say yes. Kansas will have to contend with either St. Mary's or Purdue, two teams that nearly matched up in a regional final two years ago, and North Carolina won't exactly have an easy task if they draw Creighton - or Alabama, which came pretty close to Kentucky at Rupp Arena in January.

The ten most incredible runs in NCAA tournament history

A quick caveat: this will only include runs made since the field expanded to 64 in 1985, meaning that NC State's 1983 run, impressive though it was, will not show up. Sorry.

10. 1997 Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was a mere #4 seed in the Southeast region, which is why they're only tenth on this list even though they ran to the national championship. But they did have to beat three number one seeds to win the title, the first time that had ever happened. After knocking off Kansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona still had to get by scrappy underdog Providence, the #10 seed, who had taken down #2 Duke in the second round. It took overtime, but Arizona made the Final Four. They proceeded to beat North Carolina (who had future NBA stars Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison), the #1 seed from the East, and finally defending champions Kentucky, again in overtime.

9. 2008 Davidson Wildcats

Led by Stephen Curry, #10 seed Davidson fell just short of the Final Four, but still had a captivating run. Paired against Cinderella stalwart Gonzaga in the first round, Davidson took them down behind Curry's 40 points, then upset #2 seed Georgetown 74-70. In the Sweet 16, facing #3 Wisconsin and their fearsome defense, Curry scored 33 points as Davidson won easily, 73-56. Only #1 Kansas could stop the Wildcats, winning 59-57. Curry scored another 25 points but was successfully double-teamed in the final seconds as the Jayhawks forced him to pass rather than having a decent look at a possible game-winning three-pointer that would have made Davidson the only #10 seed ever to crack the Final Four.

8. 1987 Providence Friars

Providence seemed to have lucked out early in the 1987 tournament - after defeating #11 UAB in the first round, they needed overtime to knock out #14 Austin Peay, which had bounced #3 Illinois in the first round. Providence proved they were better than lucky, however, by toppling #2 Alabama 103-82 in the Sweet 16 and then knocking off top seed Georgetown 88-73 in the Southeast regional final. Georgetown had beaten the Friars 84-66 in the Big East Tournament semifinals just two weeks earlier. Providence's run ended at the hands of yet another Big East team in the national semis as Syracuse defeated them for the third team that year, 77-63.

7. 2000 Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers weren't the only longshot in the 2000 Final Four. Top seed Michigan State was joined by #5 Florida - which needed a buzzer-beater to escape its opening round game against Butler - along with #8 seeds Wisconsin and North Carolina. But it was Wisconsin who really captured everyone's attention thanks to their smothering defense. After an opening-round win against Fresno State, the Badgers shocked #1 seed Arizona 66-59 in the second round, then stymied #4 LSU 61-48 before facing off against conference rival Purdue, the #6 seed, in the West regional final. Though they had gone just 8-8 in the Big Ten, Wisconsin was 2-1 against Purdue before the tournament, including a win in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals fifteen days earlier. They won again, 64-60, to earn a Final Four date with Michigan State, which had beaten them twice in the regular season and a third time in the Big Ten Tournament semis. Though Wisconsin's defense held the eventual champs to just 19 first-half points and 35% shooting for the game, the Spartans prevailed 53-41 as Wisconsin's own offensive issues came back to haunt them.

6. 1986 LSU Tigers

LSU needed double overtime just to upset #6 Purdue in their first round game, but they promptly ran to the Final Four by knocking out the top three seeds in the regional. The Tigers had been ranked 14th in preseason polls, but went just 9-9 in the SEC and entered the tournament as the #11 seed in the Southeast. They knocked off #3 Memphis State 83-81 in the second round (Memphis had been to the Final Four the previous year), then took out #2 Georgia Tech 70-64, and finally bumped off top seed Kentucky - which had beaten the Tigers three times already that season - by a slim 59-57 margin. Eventual champions Louisville ended LSU's giant-killing run with an 88-77 win in the national semis.

5. 1999 Gonzaga Bulldogs

In many ways LSU's run was more impressive than Gonzaga's. Heck, the Bulldogs were only a #10 seed, and they didn't even make the Final Four! But LSU plays in the SEC, after all. Gonzaga comes out of the unheralded (especially at the time) West Coast Conference, a conference only known previously for producing the 1990 Loyola Marymount team that might have cracked a slightly longer version of this list. But Gonzaga really kicked off the last decade-plus of mid-major darlings with their 1999 run that included a first round defeat of #7 Minnesota, a second round shock of #2 Stanford, and a 73-72 nail-biter over #6 Florida before finally falling to eventual champion #1 UConn in the regional final. Amazingly, despite their reputation as a Cinderella and despite their eventual rise as high as a #2 seed (in the 2004 tournament), Gonzaga has never again made it as far as the Elite Eight.

4. 2010 Butler Bulldogs

This would be higher except Butler was a #5 seed in the 2010 tournament - and if you can get a seed that high out of a mid-major conference, it usually means you were pretty good. Butler, in fact, was 28-4 entering the tournament and had gone undefeated in the Horizon League, with key out-of-conference wins over a ranked Ohio State team and Xavier. Even the most optimistic fans could not have expected what happened, though. After a commanding win over #12 UTEP in the first round, Butler slipped past #13 Murray State by just two points. In the Sweet 16, they jumped to a ten-point halftime lead on #1 seed Syracuse before giving it all back and then some in the second half. The Orange went up 54-50 with 5:28 to play on a Kris Joseph dunk... and then, right at the point when Cinderella has blown its lead and folds, Butler went on an 11-0 run over the next 4:54 to seal an eventual 63-59 win. Butler took a seven-point halftime lead on #2 Kansas State in the regional final en route to a 63-56 win, and then held off Michigan State, another #5 seed, 52-50 in the national semis to score a title game meeting with big bad #1 seed Duke. Playing in its home city of Indianapolis, the Bulldogs fought hard but eventually lost 61-59 when Gordon Hayward's half-court heave at the buzzer glanced off the backboard and rim, depriving us all of what would have been probably the greatest moment in NCAA Tournament history.

3. 2006 George Mason Patriots

If Gonzaga started the mid-major party of the last decade-plus, it was George Mason who finally accepted the invitation to crash into the Final Four. The Patriots tied for first during the regular season in the Colonial Athletic Association, but crashed out in the conference tournament semifinals and lost one of their best players to suspension (for punching an opponent in the junk) in the process. Entering the tournament as the East's #11 seed, Mason was an afterthought - at least until they knocked out #6 Michigan State and #3 North Carolina, both Final Four teams from the previous year, in the first two rounds. After taking out #7 Wichita State in an all-mid-major Sweet 16 affair, the Patriots took on top seed Connecticut, a talented team with a tendency to sleepwalk through long periods of big games, which had nearly cost them in an overtime win over #5 Washington in the Sweet 16. The Huskies led by nine at halftime after a 15-5 run over the final three minutes of the first half, but Mason crawled back to take the lead with 11:12 to go and neither team led by more than four afterwards. The Patriots were up 74-70 with 23 seconds to go, but UConn once again managed to force overtime on a Denham Brown layup at the buzzer. Unfazed, Mason went up 85-80 with 41 seconds left in overtime and hung on for the 86-84 win when Brown missed a three at the buzzer, completing a miracle run that saw defeats of three of the previous six national champions. The eventual champion Florida Gators ended Mason's Cinderella dream in the national semis; it would take Butler four years later to make the next step for mid-majors.

2. 2011 VCU Rams

The question is, can VCU (or, for that matter, this year's Butler team) win it all and take that final step? If this were last year, VCU's five wins would already have them in the title game; of course, if this were last year, VCU wouldn't even have made the field. Regardless of what they've achieved, the Rams were a curious at-large selection at best - they finished fourth in the CAA, behind a Hofstra team that ended up in the CBI Tournament, and although they took third place in the NIT Season Tip-Off with a win over UCLA, there wasn't much on their resume to suggest they belonged in the field over, say, a Colorado team that had beaten Kansas State three times. But there VCU was in the opening round game against USC for the right to be the Southwest Region's #11 seed. The Rams won that one, then faced #6 Georgetown... and shot the Hoyas out of the building, burying 12 three-pointers and never trailing after the 7:47 mark of the first half. They then did much the same to #3 Purdue, never trailing after the 5:54 mark of the first half. They had more trouble with #10 Florida State, going to overtime after failing to score in the final 3:14 of regulation, and needed a layup with six seconds left to pull out the 72-71 win. But just when you thought their magic had run out, they jumped out to a first-half lead of as much as 18 points on top seed Kansas and never trailed after the 14:02 mark of the first half en route to a stunning 71-61 win. My future brother-in-law, a Duke fan, commented that Butler would be going back to the title game after hearing that VCU had advanced. Um, haven't we learned better than to write VCU off by now?

1. 1985 Villanova Wildcats

They're not a mid-major, and so they could be passed by VCU should the Rams somehow win it all. But Villanova's run from the #8 seed to the 1985 national championship is surely the most incredible in the 64-team era. The Wildcats squeaked by #9 Dayton by just two points in the first round, then toppled #1 Michigan by four and #5 Maryland by three before shocking #2 North Carolina 56-44 to advance to the Final Four. Playing the only non-Big East Final Four team in Memphis, Villanova won 52-45 to set up a meeting with #1 Georgetown, the defending national champions and a team that had beaten Villanova twice during the regular season. This time, the Wildcats nearly threw a perfect game - they shot 22-of-28 from the floor and were 22-of-27 from the free throw line - and they needed every last one of those shots in a 66-64 win that saw Georgetown make 29-of-53 field goals but get to the line a mere eight times, making just six. Whether Villanova could have made a run like this with a shot clock (this was the last tournament without one) might be questionable, since it was their ability to wait for the perfect shot that enabled them to beat the Hoyas, but hey, they didn't have to. Until another team seeded this low wins it all, Villanova will own the most incredible run in the history of the 64 (or more)-team tournament.

Back in Bracket

I haven't watched much college basketball this year, although naturally I found myself utterly addicted to it during Tournament Week. Now it's time for the NCAA Tournament and of course I don't have the greatest sense for who's going to win. So get ready for a long post wherein I talk myself through all the regions. It's probably going to be utterly uninformative to anyone else (though I will be pulling info from elsewhere), but I only get to do this once a year, so whatever.

East Region

1) Ohio State vs. 16) Texas-San Antonio or Alabama State

8) George Mason vs. 9) Villanova

5) West Virginia vs. 12) Alabama-Birmingham or Clemson

4) Kentucky vs. 13) Princeton

6) Xavier vs. 11) Marquette

3) Syracuse vs. 14) Indiana State

7) Washington vs. 10) Georgia

2) North Carolina vs. 15) Long Island

Ohio State is the number one overall seed, which is funny if you saw Northwestern come within one basket of beating them on two separate occasions. They destroyed small-conference opposition this year, including a few teams in the field (Oakland, Morehead State and UNC-Asheville), so clearly the first round will pose no threat. But can they make it all the way to Houston? Their biggest threats are clearly UNC, Syracuse and Kentucky - I know the Big East is deep, but West Virginia as a 5 seed with 11 losses? Also, they lost to Minnesota. OSU-UK is the most likely matchup in the Sweet 16 and it could be a very interesting game between two teams with freshman stars. North Carolina also has freshman stars, which raises the question: could Syracuse's experience be a valuable asset in this region? Maybe, but first they would have to get past a similarly experienced Xavier squad that came within a double-overtime game of the Elite Eight last year. (Assuming Xavier can beat Marquette, of course. But Marquette is a 14-loss team. 14! I don't care what conference they play in, that's a lot.)

My picks:

First Round

Ohio State over UTSA/ASU

George Mason over Villanova

'Nova has lost seven of their last nine coming in, and the two wins were narrow escapes against Seton Hall and DePaul, not exactly the class of the Big East.

West Virginia over Clemson/UAB

It's weird this year because 11 and 12 seeds win first round games all the time, yet we won't know who two of them are until the night before the real games - it's a little harder to pick with that in mind, but I think WVU will probably beat either team here.

Kentucky over Princeton

Xavier over Marquette

Syracuse over Indiana State

Washington over Georgia

North Carolina over LIU

Second Round

Ohio State over George Mason

Kentucky over West Virginia

UK's top three scorers are all freshmen, which has to scare you a little, but they were super young last year too and still went to the Elite 8 - though they did lose to West Virginia once there... meh, I'm sticking with the team that didn't lose to Minnesota.

Xavier over Syracuse

Pickin' the upset here! Syracuse has made the Sweet 16 the last two years, but Xavier's made it the last three and they always seem to make a run. I think Syracuse is a bit overrated - Seton Hall, a bad team, mopped the floor with them in the Carrier Dome in January. They enter on a mild hot streak, but so does Xavier.

Washington over North Carolina

What??? Well, did you know that UNC also lost to Minnesota? Plus their best player is a freshman and their point guard is a freshman. Dangerous. UW's best three players are a junior and two seniors, plus they can score a lot of points. I do worry a little about their size against Zeller and Henson, but if they can make it into a shootout I like their chances.

Sweet 16

Ohio State over Kentucky

OSU's best player is a freshman, but with Diebler, Buford and Lighty they've got plenty of experience. Kentucky may have the size to slow down Sullinger, but OSU's more experienced guards should be able to get it done.

Xavier over Washington

When in doubt, take the team with the best player. I give Tu Holloway the nod over Isaiah Thomas.

Elite 8

Ohio State over Xavier

I like this to be a closer game than most would expect, but I can't make myself pick Xavier into the Final Four. OSU has big guards and even though Xavier has some size at the forward position and might actually be able to neutralize Sullinger if only through sheer volume, I don't know how Lyons and Holloway are going to guard Diebler and Buford and their several-inch height advantages.

One thoroughly incorrect bracket down, three to go.

West Region

1) Duke vs. 16) Hampton

8) Michigan vs. 9) Tennessee

5) Arizona vs. 12) Memphis

4) Texas vs. 13) Oakland

6) Cincinnati vs. 11) Missouri

3) Connecticut vs. 14) Bucknell

7) Temple vs. 10) Penn State

2) San Diego State vs. 15) Northern Colorado

Kind of a weird region. As the last #1 seed, Duke has to travel a long way from home for the regional in Anaheim - advantage Arizona (if they get past Memphis and Texas) and San Diego State (if they make it to the Elite Eight). I'm sure San Diego State is a good team, but did you notice that they haven't really played anyone this year? They made their bones on a win over Gonzaga in November; Gonzaga was ranked #12 then, but now they're an 11 seed. BYU took them out twice and had to lose a key forward before SDSU could beat them. I don't know. They don't have the hardest road here and they're much closer to home than Temple, Penn State, UConn and Cincy... but can a team that has never won a tournament game suddenly coast into the Elite Eight? Meanwhile on the other side, if Duke can get past the Sweet 16 matchup with either (presumably) Arizona or Texas, they're primed for another Final Four run. Ugh.

My picks:

First Round

Duke over Hampton

Tennessee over Michigan

27 combined losses between UT and UM, so hold your nose for this one. I picked Michigan elsewhere before actually doing any research, but their entire reputation seems based on taking Kansas to overtime. (They also lost to Minnesota at home and got blown out at Indiana.) Tennessee actually beat some quality teams, including #1 seed Pitt. They also look to be more experienced.

Arizona over Memphis

Texas over Oakland

Oakland's best player, Keith Benson, is a 6-11 senior center who goes for 18 and 10 a game. Oakland is also, get this, second in the country in scoring, 14th in rebounding, 17th in assists, and second in field goal percentage. Texas is an even better rebounding team, however, and they play in a real conference. The one thing to watch here is if Texas can guard Benson - the obvious assignment looks to be Tristan Thompson, a freshman who gives up three inches to Benson. If Benson can go for 25 and 10, and gets the appropriate help, Oakland could spring the upset. But I won't pick against a team that beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.

Missouri over Cincinnati

Neither team had much in the way of marquee wins. Cincy got shellacked by Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament, and their best players just don't seem to be that great if you just look at the numbers. Missouri is a high-scoring team that should be able to hit free throws if it jumps out to a lead.

Connecticut over Bucknell

Bucknell, as a school, has upset experience (stunning Kansas from the same seed line in 2005), but this is the first tourney trip for everyone on the current squad. Though UConn may be a little tired from their five-day run through the Big East Tournament, and though they were really inconsistent over the last month and a half, it's hard to see how they lose this one.

Temple over Penn State

San Diego State over Northern Colorado

Second Round

Duke over Tennessee

Texas over Arizona

The game is in Tulsa, meaning Texas is likely to have a pretty sizable advantage in terms of fans.

Connecticut over Missouri

This one is slightly dangerous, because if Connecticut is tired from their Big East run, an up-and-down team like Missouri could be tricky for them. On the other hand, if Missouri doesn't play the greatest defense, Kemba Walker could eat them alive. And this is a UConn team that won at Texas this year, something Mizzou sure couldn't do. UConn will also have the fan advantage in Washington DC.

San Diego State over Temple

Sweet 16

Duke over Texas

This Duke team has been vulnerable on the road, losing at Florida State and Virginia Tech and getting blown out at St. John's - but while Anaheim is closer to Austin than to Durham, this isn't really "the road." I don't think Texas can match Duke's size and experience, sadly.

San Diego State over Connecticut

Another tough call, but SDSU has shown it can win against a team with a big scorer and maybe not enough extra help (BYU in the MWC final) and at this point UConn might just have asked Walker to do too much for too many games in too few days. Plus SDSU is in their backyard and UConn is three thousand miles away.

Elite 8

San Diego State over Duke

Man... am I really going to pick this? I guess I am. Call it wishful thinking if you must - SDSU has a lot of big bodies (although in a one-to-one matchup scenario they tend to give up an inch or two to Duke in most cases) and they'll be close to home, which routinely pans out as a major advantage in the tournament. Duke's road woes could catch up with them here, and given their injury issues I wouldn't put it past them to be additionally banged up by this point. My one big worry is that SDSU is not a great foul-shooting team.

Southwest Region

1) Kansas vs. 16) Boston University

8) UNLV vs. 9) Illinois

5) Vanderbilt vs. 12) Richmond

4) Louisville vs. 13) Morehead State

6) Georgetown vs. 11) USC or Virginia Commonwealth

3) Purdue vs. 14) St. Peter's

7) Texas A&M vs. 10) Florida State

2) Notre Dame vs. 15) Akron

Weird region, because I don't trust most of the high seeds any farther than I can throw them. To me it would be a massive upset if Kansas didn't coast out of this thing; I just don't buy Notre Dame at all (they lost to Northwestern just last year, and that was a team that still had Luke Harangody!), and none of Purdue, Louisville, Vandy or Georgetown excites me. I mean, I'm looking at Purdue in the Elite 8 right now. Really?

My picks:

First Round

Kansas over Boston University

UNLV over Illinois

Richmond over Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt stubbed its toe as a high seed in their last two appearances (2008 and 2010), and Richmond is a senior-heavy team that actually beat Purdue this year (though they also lost to a bad Georgia Tech team).

Louisville over Morehead State

Georgetown over USC/VCU

Hard to know what to do here, but by all accounts VCU is a team that has no business in the field at all, and while USC had some marquee wins (Arizona, at Washington, at Tennessee) and also a key close loss (by two at Kansas), they also had 14 losses, several of them awful (they lost to Rider by 20 points at home [!!!] as well as at a terrible TCU team). Georgetown is stumbling into the tournament having lost four straight, but I still think they can get by either of the potential 11 seeds, at least.

Purdue over St. Peter's

Texas A&M over Florida State

Notre Dame over Akron

Second Round

Kansas over UNLV

Louisville over Richmond

Purdue over Georgetown

Notre Dame over Texas A&M

Sweet 16

Kansas over Louisville

Purdue over Notre Dame

Elite 8

Kansas over Purdue

Not much to say there. I guess you could say this is the bracket I feel the surest about, which probably means USC will make the Sweet 16 and Notre Dame will get to the Final Four.

Southeast Region

1) Pittsburgh vs. 16) UNC-Asheville or Arkansas-Little Rock

8) Butler vs. 9) Old Dominion

5) Kansas State vs. 12) Utah State

4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Belmont

6) St. John's vs. 11) Gonzaga

3) BYU vs. 14) Wofford

7) UCLA vs. 10) Michigan State

2) Florida vs. 15) UC-Santa Barbara

This region, I think - and Seth Davis, for one, seems to agree - could break down like the 1998 Midwest Region. If you'll recall, that one featured top seed Kansas going out to #8 Rhode Island in Round Two; #12 Florida State and #13 Valparaiso both winning, and Valpo subsequently reaching the Sweet 16; and #3 Stanford finally emerging to make the Final Four. (I didn't trust most of the top seeds and so went with #5 TCU to make it out, to my later chagrin.) Now look at this one. You have Pitt as the one seed - good team, but are they great? Florida seems like a weak 2. It's hard to know what to expect out of BYU, and Wisconsin, Kansas State and St. John's all look like potential upsets, drawing three of the best mid-majors in the whole field.

My picks:

First Round

Pittsburgh over UNCA/UALR

Old Dominion over Butler

Of course Butler came up just short in the finals last year, but Gordon Hayward is gone. These teams have a common non-conference opponent: Xavier, who beat Butler but lost to ODU.

Kansas State over Utah State

Belmont over Wisconsin

Wisconsin has routinely underperformed its seed line, dropping to teams seeded at least five lines lower in 2007, 2008 and 2010. Belmont, meanwhile, is a high-scoring team that hits its shots, and if they can get out to a lead, Wisconsin's big advantages - clock management and hitting free throws - will be thoroughly negated. This was probably the one upset in the whole bracket that really jumped out at me, especially after Wisconsin scored just 33 points in the Big Ten semifinal against Penn State. Utah State definitely has a good chance of taking out KSU as well, but I was reluctant to pick the 12 and 13 here.

Gonzaga over St. John's

St. John's made its name this year as a giant-killer, with wins over Duke, Pitt, Notre Dame and UConn. They also lost to Fordham, St. Bonaventure and Seton Hall and will be playing without D.J. Kennedy, one of their top three guys. Gonzaga underachieved this year but they've won nine straight and have been here before.

BYU over Wofford

Michigan State over UCLA

Florida over UCSB

Second Round

Pittsburgh over Old Dominion

Kansas State over Belmont

I find Belmont intriguing, but Kansas State was in the Elite 8 just last year and still has the best players from that team. You don't see 13 seeds winning multiple games, even if Belmont has an argument for being underseeded.

BYU over Gonzaga

I'm not sure how BYU will handle 7-foot Gonzaga center Robert Sacre, but I think Fredette's scoring and a favorable crowd in Denver can get BYU to the Sweet 16.

Florida over Michigan State

Florida has some losses that really give one pause - Central Florida, home to Jacksonville and South Carolina - but Michigan State was so inconsistent this year it's a minor miracle they made it this far.

Sweet 16

Pittsburgh over Kansas State

Looks real good on paper, a battle between two experienced teams. Pitt looks like they have a little more talent, though KSU might have the best player. Nod to Pitt.

BYU over Florida

BYU beat Florida last year behind 37 points from Fredette, so why not again this year? The game is much closer to Florida, but Fredette hasn't shown a tendency to wilt on the road.

Elite 8

Pittsburgh over BYU

Fredette alone couldn't carry BYU past Kansas State in the second round last year, and I don't see him doing it here, but with no Brandon Davies, the Elite 8 would be a nice run.

So that's the four regions. How about the Final Four?

Final Four

Ohio State over San Diego State

The shooting touch of OSU's guards should carry the day here.

Kansas over Pittsburgh

Just don't see Pitt having an answer for the Morrises inside.

National Championship

Ohio State over Kansas

A tantalizing final, even if it is the top two seeds. How will Sullinger and the Morrises play each other? Can Kansas' guards keep up with the hot shooting of Ohio State's? In the end I think it's Buford and Diebler who win it for Ohio State, 76-72.