East Region
1) Ohio State vs. 16) Texas-San Antonio or Alabama State
8) George Mason vs. 9) Villanova
5) West Virginia vs. 12) Alabama-Birmingham or Clemson
4) Kentucky vs. 13) Princeton
6) Xavier vs. 11) Marquette
3) Syracuse vs. 14) Indiana State
7) Washington vs. 10) Georgia
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Long Island
Ohio State is the number one overall seed, which is funny if you saw Northwestern come within one basket of beating them on two separate occasions. They destroyed small-conference opposition this year, including a few teams in the field (Oakland, Morehead State and UNC-Asheville), so clearly the first round will pose no threat. But can they make it all the way to Houston? Their biggest threats are clearly UNC, Syracuse and Kentucky - I know the Big East is deep, but West Virginia as a 5 seed with 11 losses? Also, they lost to Minnesota. OSU-UK is the most likely matchup in the Sweet 16 and it could be a very interesting game between two teams with freshman stars. North Carolina also has freshman stars, which raises the question: could Syracuse's experience be a valuable asset in this region? Maybe, but first they would have to get past a similarly experienced Xavier squad that came within a double-overtime game of the Elite Eight last year. (Assuming Xavier can beat Marquette, of course. But Marquette is a 14-loss team. 14! I don't care what conference they play in, that's a lot.)
My picks:
First Round
Ohio State over UTSA/ASU
George Mason over Villanova
'Nova has lost seven of their last nine coming in, and the two wins were narrow escapes against Seton Hall and DePaul, not exactly the class of the Big East.
West Virginia over Clemson/UAB
It's weird this year because 11 and 12 seeds win first round games all the time, yet we won't know who two of them are until the night before the real games - it's a little harder to pick with that in mind, but I think WVU will probably beat either team here.
Kentucky over Princeton
Xavier over Marquette
Syracuse over Indiana State
Washington over Georgia
North Carolina over LIU
Second Round
Ohio State over George Mason
Kentucky over West Virginia
UK's top three scorers are all freshmen, which has to scare you a little, but they were super young last year too and still went to the Elite 8 - though they did lose to West Virginia once there... meh, I'm sticking with the team that didn't lose to Minnesota.
Xavier over Syracuse
Pickin' the upset here! Syracuse has made the Sweet 16 the last two years, but Xavier's made it the last three and they always seem to make a run. I think Syracuse is a bit overrated - Seton Hall, a bad team, mopped the floor with them in the Carrier Dome in January. They enter on a mild hot streak, but so does Xavier.
Washington over North Carolina
What??? Well, did you know that UNC also lost to Minnesota? Plus their best player is a freshman and their point guard is a freshman. Dangerous. UW's best three players are a junior and two seniors, plus they can score a lot of points. I do worry a little about their size against Zeller and Henson, but if they can make it into a shootout I like their chances.
Sweet 16
Ohio State over Kentucky
OSU's best player is a freshman, but with Diebler, Buford and Lighty they've got plenty of experience. Kentucky may have the size to slow down Sullinger, but OSU's more experienced guards should be able to get it done.
Xavier over Washington
When in doubt, take the team with the best player. I give Tu Holloway the nod over Isaiah Thomas.
Elite 8
Ohio State over Xavier
I like this to be a closer game than most would expect, but I can't make myself pick Xavier into the Final Four. OSU has big guards and even though Xavier has some size at the forward position and might actually be able to neutralize Sullinger if only through sheer volume, I don't know how Lyons and Holloway are going to guard Diebler and Buford and their several-inch height advantages.
One thoroughly incorrect bracket down, three to go.
West Region
1) Duke vs. 16) Hampton
8) Michigan vs. 9) Tennessee
5) Arizona vs. 12) Memphis
4) Texas vs. 13) Oakland
6) Cincinnati vs. 11) Missouri
3) Connecticut vs. 14) Bucknell
7) Temple vs. 10) Penn State
2) San Diego State vs. 15) Northern Colorado
Kind of a weird region. As the last #1 seed, Duke has to travel a long way from home for the regional in Anaheim - advantage Arizona (if they get past Memphis and Texas) and San Diego State (if they make it to the Elite Eight). I'm sure San Diego State is a good team, but did you notice that they haven't really played anyone this year? They made their bones on a win over Gonzaga in November; Gonzaga was ranked #12 then, but now they're an 11 seed. BYU took them out twice and had to lose a key forward before SDSU could beat them. I don't know. They don't have the hardest road here and they're much closer to home than Temple, Penn State, UConn and Cincy... but can a team that has never won a tournament game suddenly coast into the Elite Eight? Meanwhile on the other side, if Duke can get past the Sweet 16 matchup with either (presumably) Arizona or Texas, they're primed for another Final Four run. Ugh.
My picks:
First Round
Duke over Hampton
Tennessee over Michigan
27 combined losses between UT and UM, so hold your nose for this one. I picked Michigan elsewhere before actually doing any research, but their entire reputation seems based on taking Kansas to overtime. (They also lost to Minnesota at home and got blown out at Indiana.) Tennessee actually beat some quality teams, including #1 seed Pitt. They also look to be more experienced.
Arizona over Memphis
Texas over Oakland
Oakland's best player, Keith Benson, is a 6-11 senior center who goes for 18 and 10 a game. Oakland is also, get this, second in the country in scoring, 14th in rebounding, 17th in assists, and second in field goal percentage. Texas is an even better rebounding team, however, and they play in a real conference. The one thing to watch here is if Texas can guard Benson - the obvious assignment looks to be Tristan Thompson, a freshman who gives up three inches to Benson. If Benson can go for 25 and 10, and gets the appropriate help, Oakland could spring the upset. But I won't pick against a team that beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.
Missouri over Cincinnati
Neither team had much in the way of marquee wins. Cincy got shellacked by Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament, and their best players just don't seem to be that great if you just look at the numbers. Missouri is a high-scoring team that should be able to hit free throws if it jumps out to a lead.
Connecticut over Bucknell
Bucknell, as a school, has upset experience (stunning Kansas from the same seed line in 2005), but this is the first tourney trip for everyone on the current squad. Though UConn may be a little tired from their five-day run through the Big East Tournament, and though they were really inconsistent over the last month and a half, it's hard to see how they lose this one.
Temple over Penn State
San Diego State over Northern Colorado
Second Round
Duke over Tennessee
Texas over Arizona
The game is in Tulsa, meaning Texas is likely to have a pretty sizable advantage in terms of fans.
Connecticut over Missouri
This one is slightly dangerous, because if Connecticut is tired from their Big East run, an up-and-down team like Missouri could be tricky for them. On the other hand, if Missouri doesn't play the greatest defense, Kemba Walker could eat them alive. And this is a UConn team that won at Texas this year, something Mizzou sure couldn't do. UConn will also have the fan advantage in Washington DC.
San Diego State over Temple
Sweet 16
Duke over Texas
This Duke team has been vulnerable on the road, losing at Florida State and Virginia Tech and getting blown out at St. John's - but while Anaheim is closer to Austin than to Durham, this isn't really "the road." I don't think Texas can match Duke's size and experience, sadly.
San Diego State over Connecticut
Another tough call, but SDSU has shown it can win against a team with a big scorer and maybe not enough extra help (BYU in the MWC final) and at this point UConn might just have asked Walker to do too much for too many games in too few days. Plus SDSU is in their backyard and UConn is three thousand miles away.
Elite 8
San Diego State over Duke
Man... am I really going to pick this? I guess I am. Call it wishful thinking if you must - SDSU has a lot of big bodies (although in a one-to-one matchup scenario they tend to give up an inch or two to Duke in most cases) and they'll be close to home, which routinely pans out as a major advantage in the tournament. Duke's road woes could catch up with them here, and given their injury issues I wouldn't put it past them to be additionally banged up by this point. My one big worry is that SDSU is not a great foul-shooting team.
Southwest Region
1) Kansas vs. 16) Boston University
8) UNLV vs. 9) Illinois
5) Vanderbilt vs. 12) Richmond
4) Louisville vs. 13) Morehead State
6) Georgetown vs. 11) USC or Virginia Commonwealth
3) Purdue vs. 14) St. Peter's
7) Texas A&M vs. 10) Florida State
2) Notre Dame vs. 15) Akron
Weird region, because I don't trust most of the high seeds any farther than I can throw them. To me it would be a massive upset if Kansas didn't coast out of this thing; I just don't buy Notre Dame at all (they lost to Northwestern just last year, and that was a team that still had Luke Harangody!), and none of Purdue, Louisville, Vandy or Georgetown excites me. I mean, I'm looking at Purdue in the Elite 8 right now. Really?
My picks:
First Round
Kansas over Boston University
UNLV over Illinois
Richmond over Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt stubbed its toe as a high seed in their last two appearances (2008 and 2010), and Richmond is a senior-heavy team that actually beat Purdue this year (though they also lost to a bad Georgia Tech team).
Louisville over Morehead State
Georgetown over USC/VCU
Hard to know what to do here, but by all accounts VCU is a team that has no business in the field at all, and while USC had some marquee wins (Arizona, at Washington, at Tennessee) and also a key close loss (by two at Kansas), they also had 14 losses, several of them awful (they lost to Rider by 20 points at home [!!!] as well as at a terrible TCU team). Georgetown is stumbling into the tournament having lost four straight, but I still think they can get by either of the potential 11 seeds, at least.
Purdue over St. Peter's
Texas A&M over Florida State
Notre Dame over Akron
Second Round
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over Georgetown
Notre Dame over Texas A&M
Sweet 16
Kansas over Louisville
Purdue over Notre Dame
Elite 8
Kansas over Purdue
Not much to say there. I guess you could say this is the bracket I feel the surest about, which probably means USC will make the Sweet 16 and Notre Dame will get to the Final Four.
Southeast Region
1) Pittsburgh vs. 16) UNC-Asheville or Arkansas-Little Rock
8) Butler vs. 9) Old Dominion
5) Kansas State vs. 12) Utah State
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Belmont
6) St. John's vs. 11) Gonzaga
3) BYU vs. 14) Wofford
7) UCLA vs. 10) Michigan State
2) Florida vs. 15) UC-Santa Barbara
This region, I think - and Seth Davis, for one, seems to agree - could break down like the 1998 Midwest Region. If you'll recall, that one featured top seed Kansas going out to #8 Rhode Island in Round Two; #12 Florida State and #13 Valparaiso both winning, and Valpo subsequently reaching the Sweet 16; and #3 Stanford finally emerging to make the Final Four. (I didn't trust most of the top seeds and so went with #5 TCU to make it out, to my later chagrin.) Now look at this one. You have Pitt as the one seed - good team, but are they great? Florida seems like a weak 2. It's hard to know what to expect out of BYU, and Wisconsin, Kansas State and St. John's all look like potential upsets, drawing three of the best mid-majors in the whole field.
My picks:
First Round
Pittsburgh over UNCA/UALR
Old Dominion over Butler
Of course Butler came up just short in the finals last year, but Gordon Hayward is gone. These teams have a common non-conference opponent: Xavier, who beat Butler but lost to ODU.
Kansas State over Utah State
Belmont over Wisconsin
Wisconsin has routinely underperformed its seed line, dropping to teams seeded at least five lines lower in 2007, 2008 and 2010. Belmont, meanwhile, is a high-scoring team that hits its shots, and if they can get out to a lead, Wisconsin's big advantages - clock management and hitting free throws - will be thoroughly negated. This was probably the one upset in the whole bracket that really jumped out at me, especially after Wisconsin scored just 33 points in the Big Ten semifinal against Penn State. Utah State definitely has a good chance of taking out KSU as well, but I was reluctant to pick the 12 and 13 here.
Gonzaga over St. John's
St. John's made its name this year as a giant-killer, with wins over Duke, Pitt, Notre Dame and UConn. They also lost to Fordham, St. Bonaventure and Seton Hall and will be playing without D.J. Kennedy, one of their top three guys. Gonzaga underachieved this year but they've won nine straight and have been here before.
BYU over Wofford
Michigan State over UCLA
Florida over UCSB
Second Round
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Kansas State over Belmont
I find Belmont intriguing, but Kansas State was in the Elite 8 just last year and still has the best players from that team. You don't see 13 seeds winning multiple games, even if Belmont has an argument for being underseeded.
BYU over Gonzaga
I'm not sure how BYU will handle 7-foot Gonzaga center Robert Sacre, but I think Fredette's scoring and a favorable crowd in Denver can get BYU to the Sweet 16.
Florida over Michigan State
Florida has some losses that really give one pause - Central Florida, home to Jacksonville and South Carolina - but Michigan State was so inconsistent this year it's a minor miracle they made it this far.
Sweet 16
Pittsburgh over Kansas State
Looks real good on paper, a battle between two experienced teams. Pitt looks like they have a little more talent, though KSU might have the best player. Nod to Pitt.
BYU over Florida
BYU beat Florida last year behind 37 points from Fredette, so why not again this year? The game is much closer to Florida, but Fredette hasn't shown a tendency to wilt on the road.
Elite 8
Pittsburgh over BYU
Fredette alone couldn't carry BYU past Kansas State in the second round last year, and I don't see him doing it here, but with no Brandon Davies, the Elite 8 would be a nice run.
So that's the four regions. How about the Final Four?
Final Four
Ohio State over San Diego State
The shooting touch of OSU's guards should carry the day here.
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Just don't see Pitt having an answer for the Morrises inside.
National Championship
Ohio State over Kansas
A tantalizing final, even if it is the top two seeds. How will Sullinger and the Morrises play each other? Can Kansas' guards keep up with the hot shooting of Ohio State's? In the end I think it's Buford and Diebler who win it for Ohio State, 76-72.
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