The home stretch

Sorry for the lack of updates, but I don't have internet at home right now (thanks, RCN). Updating the picks has been hard enough, since I have to do it through the website's control panel (much, much harder than with a WYSIWYG editor), so I've been doing it more sporadically than I otherwise might have. That said, they should all be up to date now, and assuming I haven't miscounted, our post-New-Year's-Day standings look like this:

1. Rudnik (19-8)
2. Drew (18-9)
3t. Flax (17-10)
3t. Stan (17-10)
5t. Dad (16-11)
5t. Tyler (16-11)
7. JQ (15-12)
8. Rich (13-14)
9. NJ Dave (12-15)
10. NU Dave (11-16)

If Wake Forest wins tonight, Rudnik will have things virtually locked up; he'd go two games up over Drew and three over Stan and me. Drew would need Cincinnati and Southern Miss to win just to tie Rudnik (not that that's not possible, but obviously it doesn't leave him any breathing room as those are the only games they have different of the final four), while everyone else would be mathematically eliminated.

If Louisville wins, however, Rudnik and Drew would be tied at 19-9 with Stan and myself at 18-10 (I've included Tyler and Dad, who would be at 17-11 with a Louisville win, in the below scenarios, even though I calculate that they can't win at this point). The Sugar Bowl and title game are both non-factors in the race at this point, meaning it would all come down to the International and GMAC Bowls. So assuming Louisville wins tonight, the following scenarios could happen:

If Western Michigan and Ohio win:
Rudnik 22-9 (or 21-10 if ND wins)
Drew 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Flax 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Tyler 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Dad 19-12 (or 18-13 if ND wins)
Stan 19-12 (or 18-13 if ND wins)

So we'd have a three-way tie for second, but since Rudnik had UWM and Ohio, he'd win going away. But what if he's wrong about both?

If Cincinnati and Southern Miss win:
Drew 22-9 (or 21-10 if ND wins)
Stan 21-10 (or 20-11 if ND wins)
Flax 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Rudnik 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Dad 19-12 (or 18-13 if ND wins)
Tyler 18-13 (or 17-14 if ND wins)

In this scenario Drew would win, and Stan would actually sneak all the way to second.

If Cincinnati and Ohio win:
Rudnik 21-10 (or 20-11 if ND wins)
Drew 21-10 (or 20-11 if ND wins)
Stan 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Dad 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Flax 19-12 (or 18-13 if ND wins)
Tyler 19-12 (or 18-13 if ND wins)

In this case it would come down to a tiebreaker between Rudnik and Drew. Rud has 48 total points, while Drew has 59. (I'd call that advantage: Rudnik.)

If Western Michigan and Southern Miss win:
Rudnik 21-10 (or 20-11 if ND wins)
Drew 21-10 (or 20-11 if ND wins)
Flax 21-10 (or 20-11 if ND wins)
Stan 20-11 (or 19-12 if ND wins)
Tyler 19-12 (or 18-13 if ND wins)
Dad 18-13 (or 17-14 if ND wins)

The final scenario, which involves me turning around my January 1 fortunes (2-4!) and getting all three remaining difference games right, would actually lead to a three-way tie atop the leaderboard. More problematic? Guess who has the same tiebreaker score. That's right, Rudnik and I both took 48 points (35-13 for him, 27-21 for me).

In the interest of full transparency I am announcing right now the resolution to this situation should it actually arise. (Of course, if Louisville, Cincinnati, or Ohio win, it becomes moot.) In the event of two players with the same tiebreaker score, the player whose score for the winning team is closer wins the tiebreaker. Should this fail to resolve things (say Ohio State wins 31-17, for example), the winner will be the player whose birthday is closest to the birthday of the game's MVP, much like the second tiebreaker (never used) for the Tournament Challenge.

(Troy Smith: 7/20; Ted Ginn: 4/12; Antonio Pittman, 12/19; Chris Leak, 5/3. Rudnik, with his March 20 birthday, would beat me in three of these four.)

So anyway: advantage Rudnik, for the moment. But it's not over yet.