Talking bracket

I always feel like college basketball is like a class I didn't go to. I don't pay too much attention during the season, but then comes the last couple weeks and suddenly I'm cramming like crazy for the final. This year is no exception. The question is, does seeing a team several times in the conference tournament really tell you what they're all about, and how likely they might be to succeed in the NCAAs? Well, I guess we'll find out. Let's take a look at the brackets.

South Region

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) MVSU/WKU
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut
(5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh

Most Likely to Emerge

Well, you'd have to say Kentucky, of course. They have two losses this year - one was in the SEC tournament final, and the other was an early-season buzzer-beater loss to Indiana... who, curiously, is on track to face the Wildcats in the Sweet 16. That's if you believe the Hoosiers can make it that far, of course; with a trio of dangerous mid-majors in their pod, don't be surprised if they don't. I watched Duke play a bit in the ACC Tournament and came away unconvinced, but aside from maybe Baylor I don't know who really scares me before the Elite Eight if I'm Duke. Still, with a vulnerable two seed, Kentucky are clear favorites.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

Poor Wichita State. They had a great season, but they fell prey to the committee's seeming yearly tendency to put a strong mid-major on the 4-5-6 line and then pair them against one of the feistiest teams at the 11-12-13. In this case, it's VCU, the, oh yeah, DEFENDING SOUTHWEST REGIONAL CHAMPIONS and apparently hitting their stride at the right time. Wichita State could go to the Sweet 16, or they could be headed home early.

Baylor and Indiana are both playing teams that can score, but it's always hard to know how putting up bunches of points in the WAC (as New Mexico State does) is going to translate to facing a Big Ten defense. I think it's likely both Baylor and Indiana escape their first round games (I refuse to call it the second round just because of the play-ins, sorry), but don't be shocked to see either game come down to the final few possessions.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

Is there even one in this region? If forced to choose, I might cast my lot in with #6 UNLV - they score, they rebound, and they own a ten-point win over North Carolina, a more dominant defeat than either Kentucky or Duke (one point each) managed over the Tar Heels. If they're to go far, expect possible shootouts with both Baylor and Duke.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

I doubt it. While I think Duke is vulnerable, I don't like either Notre Dame or Xavier to beat them (those teams are too inconsistent themselves). Kentucky faces an interesting potential second-round test in defending champ UConn, but talk about inconsistent - the Huskies were just 8-10 in what I didn't think was that great of a Big East this year, and also count a loss to Central Florida among their "accomplishments."

West Region

(1) Michigan State vs. (16) LIU-Brooklyn
(8) Memphis vs. (9) St. Louis
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State
(3) Marquette vs. (14) BYU/Iona
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State

Most Likely to Emerge

I suppose "most likely to emerge" is probably a silly category in some ways, since by definition a top three seed will be "most likely." Sentimentality has me leaning toward Michigan State, and they've been tested. Missouri, as good as they've been this year, runs the risk of being that team that has a huge year out of semi-nowhere (the Tigers were an 11 last year) and then stumbles early (see Gonzaga's #2 seed in 2004 for a key example; San Diego State and Notre Dame last year are recent examples). A lot of pressure comes with a high seed line and some teams aren't up to matching it. Plus, Marquette was in the Sweet 16 just last year and poses a tough matchup for Mizzou in the Sweet 16 (which I do think they'll probably get to).

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

#5 New Mexico sort of fills the Wichita State role in this region - and #12 Long Beach State fills the dangerous sleeper role. While the victory that put LBSU on the map (a win at then-#9 Pitt on November 16) was rendered mediocre by later results, the 49ers still have a win over Xavier on a neutral court and competitive losses at Kansas and North Carolina (and Creighton) in their back pocket. If Casper Ware gets going, the Lobos could be in real trouble.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

#4 Louisville has been there before - in 2005 they made the Final Four as a 4 seed against the lowest-rated #1 (Washington), and they made the Elite Eight in both 2008 (as a 3 seed) and 2009 (as a 1 seed), the latter of which they lost to Michigan State (then the #2). Think the Cardinals might be up for a little revenge? They looked pretty good in running to the Big East tournament title and easily handling ranked teams Marquette and Notre Dame. Then again, this is most of the same team that tripped against #13 Morehead State last year, so watch out.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

Probably not. Missouri may be risky, but their potential second-round opponents are Florida (lost four of their last five) and Virginia (lost five of their last eight), hardly hot hands at the moment. Michigan State may be the weakest one seed, at least by seeding, but I doubt Memphis (or Saint Louis) will have enough against them.

East Region

(1) Syracuse vs. (16) NC-Asheville
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (MD)

Most Likely to Emerge

Ready for a semi-shocker? I'm going with Florida State. I watched Syracuse twice in the Big East Tournament and did not like what I saw at all. Maybe that doesn't outweigh their dominant regular season, but this team isn't great at rebounding, so all you need to do is force them into an off shooting night. My guess is someone will. Ohio State could make it out as well, but I really liked what I saw from the Seminoles against UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament. With my luck this will turn out to be a classic overreaction and they'll trip against St. Bonaventure, but for now I'm sticking with it.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

#5 Vanderbilt has a recent history of falling flat on their damn faces, losing first-round games in this pod in 2008 (a 21-point loss to #13 Siena), 2010 (66-65 to #13 Murray State) and 2011 (69-66 to #12 Richmond). Would you bet on that team? Their win in the SEC Tournament does seem to set them up better this year, but Harvard already owns a win over Florida State this season and shoots the ball even better than Vanderbilt does. Wisconsin, which doesn't do any one thing particularly well, is also at risk against Montana, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Badgers make the Sweet 16 (although so could Harvard if things break right for them).

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

At #8, Kansas State (which owns a sweep of Missouri this year) is criminally underseeded - and they could make Syracuse pay by banging the boards and taking the Orange down in Round Two. If that happens, the Wildcats might just be poised to run all the way to New Orleans.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

It's hard to say they DEFINITELY will. And I don't see Ohio State losing. But I really think Kansas State can take out Syracuse - assuming they get to them. Let's say there's a... 30% chance it happens. I just made that up.

Midwest Region

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Lamar/Vermont
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama
(5) Temple vs. (12) Cal/South Florida
(4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont
(7) St. Mary's vs. (10) Purdue
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit

Most Likely to Emerge

It's probably North Carolina, but I have the feeling that if one region is going to break way down, it might be this one.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed For a First-Round Upset

Any of Georgetown, Michigan or Temple could go down - I think they're all vulnerable. Belmont shoots the lights out, nearly won at Cameron Indoor in November, and draws a Hoyas team with a recent history of nosedives (getting the doors blown off by VCU last year as a six seed, losing by 14 points to #14 seed Ohio in 2010). Speaking of Ohio, there they are at the 13, and I'm not sold on Michigan. Temple draws the winner of Cal/South Florida, an awful matchup in my estimation, but so was USC/VCU on paper. Forced to pick one, I'll go with Georgetown.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3-Seed) Final Four Candidate

If you believe in Michigan, they work in this spot - on paper they're clearly the best team in their pod, and after nearly upsetting Duke last year they might be primed to take out UNC. But I'm not sure I believe in them. Take a look - I'm serious - at #7 St. Mary's. They're the kind of team that's toppled Kansas recently (VCU last year, Northern Iowa in 2010), and they went to the Sweet 16 as a ten seed just two years ago. And if they can get to the Sweet 16 and Georgetown lost in the first round, then the best possible team awaiting them is San Diego State... and if they can make the Elite Eight, anything can happen. Of course, they do have to get past Purdue first.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

I say yes. Kansas will have to contend with either St. Mary's or Purdue, two teams that nearly matched up in a regional final two years ago, and North Carolina won't exactly have an easy task if they draw Creighton - or Alabama, which came pretty close to Kentucky at Rupp Arena in January.