2013 NCAA Tournament Picks

Before I get started, a warning: these picks are almost certainly going to turn out to be terrible.  I finished dead last in my pool the last two years, which isn't exactly much of a track record, and I can't say I follow college basketball obsessively outside of the tournament itself.  With that said, I'm going to go ahead and make them anyway.  Just, caveat emptor, is all.

Midwest Region
(1) Louisville vs. (16) North Carolina A&T/Liberty
(8) Colorado State vs. (9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Oregon
(4) Saint Louis vs. (13) New Mexico State
(6) Memphis vs. (11) Middle Tennessee/St. Mary's
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Valparaiso
(7) Creighton vs. (10) Cincinnati
(2) Duke vs. (15) Albany

Most Likely to Emerge

Obviously the most likely to emerge tends to be the top seed, and Louisville is the hottest team in the region, with just one loss since January (and that was on the road and in five overtimes).  People have talked about how this region is tough for Louisville, but is it really that tough before the possible Elite Eight matchup with Duke or Michigan State?  I know Saint Louis has also been hot (also only one loss since January, also in overtime on the road), and I know they're a good defensive team, but I have a hard time totally buying them.  It doesn't help that they start in San Jose against New Mexico State, a team that is top 50 in both rebounds and field goal percentage, is used to playing out west, and has won 18 of their last 20.  I'm not saying Saint Louis will definitely get upset, but to even get to Louisville in the Sweet 16 will be a grind for them.  I have Louisville in the Final Four.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

After what I just said you might think Saint Louis, but I think it's actually Oklahoma State.  Don't forget that Oregon was ranked tenth in the country as late as the end of January before a late-season skid (losing six of their last eleven regular-season games) sent them tumbling, and even a Pac-12 tournament title only got them a 12 seed.  They're underseeded if you ask me, and Oklahoma State is an unconvincing powerhouse.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

I'm not really convinced there is one.  People will tell you Saint Louis because their defense is so good, but again, I'm just not seeing it.  I might go with seventh-seeded Creighton because they can score (and led the country in field-goal percentage) and because of Doug McDermott; a team with one great player can always get hot.  But even getting past defensive-minded Cincinnati will be a challenge and I don't see Creighton taking out Duke unless McDermott scores about 50.  But let's say Creighton because this is pretty much the same Duke team that fell on its face in the first round a year ago.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

Well, your options are the Creighton/Cincinnati winner (or Albany, I guess) taking out Duke, or the winner of Colorado State/Missouri taking out Louisville.  I'm not buying Colorado State and Louisville already pounded Missouri on a neutral court once this season.  Creighton could beat Duke with points, or Cincinnati could beat them with stifling D, but I think this bracket is likely to see its top dogs win at least two games.

Picks

Louisville over Missouri
Oregon over Saint Louis
Michigan State over St. Mary's
Duke over Creighton

Louisville over Oregon
Michigan State over Duke

Louisville over Michigan State

West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Southern University
(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Wichita State
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Mississippi
(4) Kansas State vs. (13) Boise State/LaSalle
(6) Arizona vs. (11) Belmont
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Harvard
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Iowa State
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Iona

Most Likely to Emerge

I've been waiting weeks to pick against Gonzaga in this bracket.  I'm sure they're good and all, but the West Coast Conference means they've played exactly one tournament team - St. Mary's, one of the last four in - since a loss to Butler on January 19.  They haven't won a game over a tournament team other than St. Mary's since December.  As impressive as it is that they've only lost twice, they simply don't have the schedule of the other top teams.  Assuming you buy the Mountain West and Atlantic Ten as tough conferences this year - and with each getting five teams in, more than the ACC, the committee appeared to - you have to go all the way down to Memphis on the #6 line to find another supposed powerhouse with so little challenge on its recent schedule.  Gonzaga could well go down the minute they get punched in the face, like they did in 2004, when they were seeded #2 (their previous highest seed) and fell to Nevada in the second round.  Gonzaga has yet to show they can be the favorites.  In fact, since their shock run to the Elite Eight as a #10 seed in 1999, you know how many times they've been back there?  Zero!  I know those were all different teams, but still.  I don't buy Gonzaga as a Final Four team, I'm sorry.

So who comes out?  Favor Ohio State.  I don't trust any of the other high seeds in this region, and while me saying that has been a recipe for disaster before (hello, 1998 Midwest regional), Ohio State isn't exactly TCU; they were in the Final Four just last year.  Jared Sullinger may be gone, but OSU still has talent and they're battle-tested - since the start of February, they've played just four games out of thirteen against non-tournament teams.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

Gonzaga is probably talented enough to get out of the first round, unfortunately - although the part of me that desperately wants to see a 16 seed win a game would be somewhat disappointed if it were Gonzaga and not a traditional power anyway.  Keep an eye on New Mexico, but I'd really take a look at Wisconsin.  Like Oregon, Ole Miss seems underseeded to me at #12 - probably because the SEC was down this year, they were in the worse half of it on top of that, and their nonconference schedule stunk.  Well, maybe they're not underseeded.  But with Marshall Henderson raining threes they're dangerous.  Wisconsin doesn't score or shoot the ball very well, and Ole Miss is a top-20 rebounding team.  This game will largely depend on Henderson; if Wisconsin's defense can lock him down, the Badgers probably win.  But if Henderson hits five or six threes and Wisconsin gets outmuscled on the glass, I like this one for the Rebels.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

Kansas State is a strong consideration.  Wisconsin always seems capable of making a run if they can avoid stumbling early just because their defense is so good.  And don't sleep on the Pitt/Wichita State winner... whoever that is.  But keep an eye on Arizona.  This is a team that was top-five for most of the first half of the season and owns wins over Florida and Miami, the latter decisively.  They have lost six of their last seven against teams that made the field (and it should be seven of their last eight thanks to that Colorado screwjob), but they have a lot of pedigree and what I think is the easiest #3 seed matchup on the board in the second round (New Mexico).  They do have to get past a tricky first-round tilt with Belmont, but after that, one great game against Ohio State could be the biggest hurdle to a surprise run to Atlanta.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

Since I've picked Ohio State to make the Final Four, saying yes here means that I have to think Gonzaga will go down in the second round.  So I'll say... yes!  I don't particularly trust Gonzaga and Pitt has a real shot as long as they don't get completely outworked on the boards (and assuming they get past Wichita State, of course).  I'm less convinced that Wichita State can do it, especially since they don't shoot the three very well, but Gonzaga is vulnerable - remember, Loyola Marymount, one of the worst teams in the country, hung with them for a half in the WCC tournament final - and I like the chances they bow out early.

Picks

Pittsburgh over Gonzaga
Mississippi over Kansas State
Arizona over New Mexico
Ohio State over Notre Dame

Pittsburgh over Mississippi
Ohio State over Arizona

Ohio State over Pittsburgh

South Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Western Kentucky
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Villanova
(5) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (12) Akron
(4) Michigan vs. (13) South Dakota State
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Minnesota
(3) Florida vs. (14) Northwestern State
(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Oklahoma
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast

Most Likely to Emerge

Some people like Georgetown, and Michigan has had its moments this season, but for me this region is between Kansas and Florida.  As good as the Jayhawks have been at times this season, they have a puzzling tendency to go to sleep on occasion, most notably their February 6 loss to TCU (one of just two conference wins for the Horned Frogs) and their 81-58 drubbing at the hands of non-tournament team Baylor on March 9 with sole possession of the conference regular season title at stake.  The bad news for Kansas is that their road to the Final Four includes several potential land mines against teams equipped to punish that lapse in concentration.  North Carolina has struggled against top teams this year but they're always talented and are coming off two straight Elite Eight appearances.  The Sweet 16 could feature a matchup with VCU, which shocked Kansas two years ago and always plays tough defense, or Michigan, a team ranked #1 in the nation as recently as February 2 and possibly underseeded thanks to a dicey run-in.  Any of those teams could take Kansas out even if the Jayhawks don't mysteriously take a game off.  Meanwhile, Florida has been to two straight Elite Eights, is one of the top shooting teams in the country, and has an easier route to the Elite Eight in my book.  I'm taking them to the Final Four.

Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

Two years ago, VCU's run from one of the last four teams in the field - and a team many thought had no business making it at all - to the Final Four was one of the most amazing stories in tournament history.  This year, VCU has a new conference (trading up from the Colonial to the Atlantic Ten) and their highest seed since 1985.  So often in the tournament, highly-seeded mid-majors can stumble under the weight of expectation when they're used to being the underdog.  It doesn't help VCU to be in the 5-12 game (historically the most prone to upsets) nor facing a team in Akron from a conference, the Mid-American, that relishes the underdog status as much as the Colonial used to.  (Akron's MAC colleague Ohio went on a Sweet 16 run just last year and nearly made the Elite Eight.)  Truth be told, I'm not sure VCU is a great matchup for Akron - the Zips aren't the best free throw shooting team, an advantage you'd like to have when facing a team known for its defense - but history says VCU is at risk.  Florida and Michigan also both have chances to stumble - the Gators face Northwestern State, the nation's top-scoring team, and Michigan is in trouble if Nate Wolters decides to go all Stephen Curry on them - but I'd put VCU's odds the best.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

I was entertained to see Jay Bilas pick VCU to come out of this region considering he was one of the loudest voices against their initial selection two years ago; doing his penance, I guess.  For me, you have to look at #4 Michigan, which at the end of January had one loss and was ranked #1 in the country.  They did struggle on the way in, but get their stars going and they'll be as tough an out as anyone, and a very dangerous matchup for Kansas in the Sweet 16.  I'm still taking Kansas, but if that top subregional breaks down at all, Michigan easily has the tools to take advantage.  If you want to look even deeper than the #4 line, try #8 North Carolina.  Yes, they disappointed in a down year for the ACC, but Roy Williams has two national titles and probably wouldn't mind bouncing his former employers in the second round.  If they can get rolling, it could just be a matter of outplaying Florida or Georgetown for 40 minutes to get to Atlanta.

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

North Carolina (or Villanova) toppling Kansas seems more likely to me even though I buy Kansas over Georgetown generally; I just don't think much of that San Diego State/Oklahoma pairing as Georgetown's possible second round opponent.  Going to say it won't happen in this region.

Picks

Kansas over North Carolina
Michigan over Akron
Florida over UCLA
Georgetown over Oklahoma

Kansas over Michigan
Florida over Georgetown

Florida over Kansas

East Region
(1) Indiana vs. (16) James Madison/Long Island
(8) North Carolina State vs. (9) Temple
(5) UNLV vs. (12) California
(4) Syracuse vs. (13) Montana
(6) Butler vs. (11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Davidson
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Colorado
(2) Miami vs. (15) Pacific

Most Likely to Emerge

There are three obvious candidates: former #1 Indiana, Miami (once ranked as high as #2), and Syracuse (once ranked as high as #3).  Marquette has made noise in the past and could again, but I'm not really feeling it.  You'd have to like Indiana... which is kind of why I don't.  The Hoosiers have rarely responded well to success this season, giving up their early #1 ranking with a loss to Butler in December, climbing back to #2 only to lose to Wisconsin, reaching #1 again with a win over then-#1 Michigan only to turn around and fall to Illinois, managing to hold the #1 ranking after that loss and beating Ohio State and Michigan State only to give up the #1 spot for good with a loss to Minnesota, followed by a loss to Ohio State on Senior Night.  I don't think the Sweet 16 is a problem for Indiana but I'm hesitant to pick them.  Miami, by comparison, flew under the radar much of the year - as late as January 21, they weren't even ranked (thanks in large part to awful early-season losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State).  Then they beat Duke 90-63 and everyone sat up and took notice.  Even in a down year for the ACC, 15-3 in conference is nothing to sneeze at, and Miami added the tournament title for good measure, in the process becoming the first team in history to win the ACC's regular season and tournament titles and not get a #1 seed in the NCAAs.  But maybe that slight suggestion of being undervalued will be added fuel.  And coach Jim Larranaga knows what it's like to reach the Final Four, having gone there with George Mason in 2006.  As for Syracuse, they've struggled the past two months but could put it together at any time.  Personally, I'm going to take Miami.  Teams that are rarely high seeds seem often to struggle when put in that spot, but I'm hopeful that the ACC gauntlet has toughened the Canes up a bit.


Most Likely Top-Five Seed for a First-Round Upset

Syracuse and Marquette are both at some risk against lower-seeded teams that know what it's like to win in March - #13 Montana won a 12-5 upset in 2006 and can really shoot, while #14 Davidson went to the Elite Eight in 2008 and gave eventual Final Four team Louisville all they wanted in the first round last year.  I'll say Syracuse is more likely because Montana shoots it well and because Syracuse sometimes struggles in these early games - last year as a #1 seed they came as close as any #1 has to losing since about 1996.

Best Dark Horse (Non-Top-3 Seed) Final Four Candidate

Since I mentioned Syracuse earlier, you have to look at them, but that's a pretty light "dark horse."  You want to go deep, consider #6 Butler - a team that knows what it's like to go to the Final Four, though personally I think they're at real risk against #11 Bucknell - as well as #7 Illinois and #8 North Carolina State, both of whom were highly ranked early in the year before fading due to early conference struggles.  Both own wins over #1 teams (Illinois beat Indiana and NC State took out Duke).  Illinois fell out of favor in the polls when they lost seven of their first nine Big Ten games, including an awful home loss to Northwestern, but this is still the same team that beat Gonzaga by 11 in Spokane, and if Brandon Paul decides to score 35 points like he did in that game, Illinois can beat anyone.  Likewise, NC State can get hot if C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell are scoring and crashing the boards.  I'm not sure that's enough to get them by Indiana in the second round, but if they do, what's stopping them from making a deep run?

Will a Top-Two Seed Lose Before the Sweet 16?

I like Indiana and Miami to meet in the Elite Eight, so I'm going to say no, but because of the potential of Illinois and NC State, I don't think you can rule it out entirely.

Picks

Indiana over North Carolina State
Syracuse over UNLV
Marquette over Bucknell
Miami over Illinois

Indiana over Syracuse
Miami over Marquette

Miami over Indiana

Final Four
(MW1) Louisville vs. (W2) Ohio State
(S3) Florida vs. (E2) Miami

I like Louisville and Miami to meet in the finals.  Both teams seem to be peaking at the right time.  For the champions, I'll take Miami.  Sort of a risky pick, but it's no fun picking a powerhouse like Louisville that already has a couple of titles under its belt (to say nothing of Rick Pitino's history).  83-79 the final.  So, go out and pick the exact opposite of everything I said here.