Lies, damn lies, and statistics

Jaime Garcia was pulled in the fifth inning last night, which marked the fifth consecutive game - all of them in the NLCS - in which the St. Louis starter did not pitch more than five innings (and only in Game Three, when Chris Carpenter went five exactly, did they even hit that mark). As a result, the talking heads have been abuzz about the fact that no team has ever won a postseason series when its starters have failed to pitch more than five innings in any of the first five games.

#1: This isn't too surprising, since in MOST cases this would indicate that the starters were getting absolutely shelled.

#2: It's not like this happens very often.

With the exception of their six-spot that chased Garcia in the fifth inning of Game One, the Brewers haven't scored more than two runs in any inning in the series, and in Games Two through Five they've topped out at four runs. The ERA for the Cardinals' starters is not good, mostly because they aren't pitching a lot of innings, but check it out:

Cardinals starters: 22.1 IP, 15 ER, 6.04 ERA

Brewers starters: 27.2 IP, 19 ER, 6.18 ERA

And that's with Randy Wolf allowing just 2 ER in 7 IP in the Game Four win. The other four games, Zack Greinke (x2), Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo have combined to go 20.2 innings (barely over five a game) and allow 17 earned runs for a combined ERA of 7.40.

So why are the Cardinals winning? Because neither team's starters are pitching well, but the Cardinals' are pitching slightly better, in spite of LaRussa's quick hook. Really, this is a total non-story, and if Carpenter gets one more out in Game Three there isn't even anything to talk about.

And, of course, because St. Louis' bullpen has thrown 21.1 IP in this series and allowed four earned runs, whereas Milwaukee's bullpen has thrown 15.1 IP and allowed 9 ER. 1.69 bullpen ERA vs. 5.28 bullpen ERA... hmm. I wonder how they're doing it?

The irony is that St. Louis' bullpen was not very good this year. Really, St. Louis didn't pitch that well in general, finishing 8th in the NL in ERA - there's a reason they were the NL's highest-scoring team and yet barely snuck into the playoffs. But just ask the 2005 White Sox how scalding-hot pitching (even if it is mostly your relievers in this case) can carry you in October.

By the way, the last team to have its starters go five innings or less in each of the first five games of a series? The 1984 Padres, in the World Series against Detroit, which they lost in five games. The five starters (Ed Whitson, Tim Lollar, Eric Show, and Mark Thurmond twice) went a COMBINED 10.1 innings in the series, with Whitson (in Game Two - which San Diego still won) and Thurmond (in Game Five) both getting yanked in the first inning, Lollar failing to make it out of the second in Game Three and Show getting pulled in the third in Game Four. Only Thurmond's Game One start saw a starter complete the fifth. The combined ERA for those four starters over five games? 13.94. St. Louis' starters are doing just a LITTLE better this series.