The ten most incredible runs in NCAA tournament history

A quick caveat: this will only include runs made since the field expanded to 64 in 1985, meaning that NC State's 1983 run, impressive though it was, will not show up. Sorry.

10. 1997 Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was a mere #4 seed in the Southeast region, which is why they're only tenth on this list even though they ran to the national championship. But they did have to beat three number one seeds to win the title, the first time that had ever happened. After knocking off Kansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona still had to get by scrappy underdog Providence, the #10 seed, who had taken down #2 Duke in the second round. It took overtime, but Arizona made the Final Four. They proceeded to beat North Carolina (who had future NBA stars Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison), the #1 seed from the East, and finally defending champions Kentucky, again in overtime.

9. 2008 Davidson Wildcats

Led by Stephen Curry, #10 seed Davidson fell just short of the Final Four, but still had a captivating run. Paired against Cinderella stalwart Gonzaga in the first round, Davidson took them down behind Curry's 40 points, then upset #2 seed Georgetown 74-70. In the Sweet 16, facing #3 Wisconsin and their fearsome defense, Curry scored 33 points as Davidson won easily, 73-56. Only #1 Kansas could stop the Wildcats, winning 59-57. Curry scored another 25 points but was successfully double-teamed in the final seconds as the Jayhawks forced him to pass rather than having a decent look at a possible game-winning three-pointer that would have made Davidson the only #10 seed ever to crack the Final Four.

8. 1987 Providence Friars

Providence seemed to have lucked out early in the 1987 tournament - after defeating #11 UAB in the first round, they needed overtime to knock out #14 Austin Peay, which had bounced #3 Illinois in the first round. Providence proved they were better than lucky, however, by toppling #2 Alabama 103-82 in the Sweet 16 and then knocking off top seed Georgetown 88-73 in the Southeast regional final. Georgetown had beaten the Friars 84-66 in the Big East Tournament semifinals just two weeks earlier. Providence's run ended at the hands of yet another Big East team in the national semis as Syracuse defeated them for the third team that year, 77-63.

7. 2000 Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers weren't the only longshot in the 2000 Final Four. Top seed Michigan State was joined by #5 Florida - which needed a buzzer-beater to escape its opening round game against Butler - along with #8 seeds Wisconsin and North Carolina. But it was Wisconsin who really captured everyone's attention thanks to their smothering defense. After an opening-round win against Fresno State, the Badgers shocked #1 seed Arizona 66-59 in the second round, then stymied #4 LSU 61-48 before facing off against conference rival Purdue, the #6 seed, in the West regional final. Though they had gone just 8-8 in the Big Ten, Wisconsin was 2-1 against Purdue before the tournament, including a win in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals fifteen days earlier. They won again, 64-60, to earn a Final Four date with Michigan State, which had beaten them twice in the regular season and a third time in the Big Ten Tournament semis. Though Wisconsin's defense held the eventual champs to just 19 first-half points and 35% shooting for the game, the Spartans prevailed 53-41 as Wisconsin's own offensive issues came back to haunt them.

6. 1986 LSU Tigers

LSU needed double overtime just to upset #6 Purdue in their first round game, but they promptly ran to the Final Four by knocking out the top three seeds in the regional. The Tigers had been ranked 14th in preseason polls, but went just 9-9 in the SEC and entered the tournament as the #11 seed in the Southeast. They knocked off #3 Memphis State 83-81 in the second round (Memphis had been to the Final Four the previous year), then took out #2 Georgia Tech 70-64, and finally bumped off top seed Kentucky - which had beaten the Tigers three times already that season - by a slim 59-57 margin. Eventual champions Louisville ended LSU's giant-killing run with an 88-77 win in the national semis.

5. 1999 Gonzaga Bulldogs

In many ways LSU's run was more impressive than Gonzaga's. Heck, the Bulldogs were only a #10 seed, and they didn't even make the Final Four! But LSU plays in the SEC, after all. Gonzaga comes out of the unheralded (especially at the time) West Coast Conference, a conference only known previously for producing the 1990 Loyola Marymount team that might have cracked a slightly longer version of this list. But Gonzaga really kicked off the last decade-plus of mid-major darlings with their 1999 run that included a first round defeat of #7 Minnesota, a second round shock of #2 Stanford, and a 73-72 nail-biter over #6 Florida before finally falling to eventual champion #1 UConn in the regional final. Amazingly, despite their reputation as a Cinderella and despite their eventual rise as high as a #2 seed (in the 2004 tournament), Gonzaga has never again made it as far as the Elite Eight.

4. 2010 Butler Bulldogs

This would be higher except Butler was a #5 seed in the 2010 tournament - and if you can get a seed that high out of a mid-major conference, it usually means you were pretty good. Butler, in fact, was 28-4 entering the tournament and had gone undefeated in the Horizon League, with key out-of-conference wins over a ranked Ohio State team and Xavier. Even the most optimistic fans could not have expected what happened, though. After a commanding win over #12 UTEP in the first round, Butler slipped past #13 Murray State by just two points. In the Sweet 16, they jumped to a ten-point halftime lead on #1 seed Syracuse before giving it all back and then some in the second half. The Orange went up 54-50 with 5:28 to play on a Kris Joseph dunk... and then, right at the point when Cinderella has blown its lead and folds, Butler went on an 11-0 run over the next 4:54 to seal an eventual 63-59 win. Butler took a seven-point halftime lead on #2 Kansas State in the regional final en route to a 63-56 win, and then held off Michigan State, another #5 seed, 52-50 in the national semis to score a title game meeting with big bad #1 seed Duke. Playing in its home city of Indianapolis, the Bulldogs fought hard but eventually lost 61-59 when Gordon Hayward's half-court heave at the buzzer glanced off the backboard and rim, depriving us all of what would have been probably the greatest moment in NCAA Tournament history.

3. 2006 George Mason Patriots

If Gonzaga started the mid-major party of the last decade-plus, it was George Mason who finally accepted the invitation to crash into the Final Four. The Patriots tied for first during the regular season in the Colonial Athletic Association, but crashed out in the conference tournament semifinals and lost one of their best players to suspension (for punching an opponent in the junk) in the process. Entering the tournament as the East's #11 seed, Mason was an afterthought - at least until they knocked out #6 Michigan State and #3 North Carolina, both Final Four teams from the previous year, in the first two rounds. After taking out #7 Wichita State in an all-mid-major Sweet 16 affair, the Patriots took on top seed Connecticut, a talented team with a tendency to sleepwalk through long periods of big games, which had nearly cost them in an overtime win over #5 Washington in the Sweet 16. The Huskies led by nine at halftime after a 15-5 run over the final three minutes of the first half, but Mason crawled back to take the lead with 11:12 to go and neither team led by more than four afterwards. The Patriots were up 74-70 with 23 seconds to go, but UConn once again managed to force overtime on a Denham Brown layup at the buzzer. Unfazed, Mason went up 85-80 with 41 seconds left in overtime and hung on for the 86-84 win when Brown missed a three at the buzzer, completing a miracle run that saw defeats of three of the previous six national champions. The eventual champion Florida Gators ended Mason's Cinderella dream in the national semis; it would take Butler four years later to make the next step for mid-majors.

2. 2011 VCU Rams

The question is, can VCU (or, for that matter, this year's Butler team) win it all and take that final step? If this were last year, VCU's five wins would already have them in the title game; of course, if this were last year, VCU wouldn't even have made the field. Regardless of what they've achieved, the Rams were a curious at-large selection at best - they finished fourth in the CAA, behind a Hofstra team that ended up in the CBI Tournament, and although they took third place in the NIT Season Tip-Off with a win over UCLA, there wasn't much on their resume to suggest they belonged in the field over, say, a Colorado team that had beaten Kansas State three times. But there VCU was in the opening round game against USC for the right to be the Southwest Region's #11 seed. The Rams won that one, then faced #6 Georgetown... and shot the Hoyas out of the building, burying 12 three-pointers and never trailing after the 7:47 mark of the first half. They then did much the same to #3 Purdue, never trailing after the 5:54 mark of the first half. They had more trouble with #10 Florida State, going to overtime after failing to score in the final 3:14 of regulation, and needed a layup with six seconds left to pull out the 72-71 win. But just when you thought their magic had run out, they jumped out to a first-half lead of as much as 18 points on top seed Kansas and never trailed after the 14:02 mark of the first half en route to a stunning 71-61 win. My future brother-in-law, a Duke fan, commented that Butler would be going back to the title game after hearing that VCU had advanced. Um, haven't we learned better than to write VCU off by now?

1. 1985 Villanova Wildcats

They're not a mid-major, and so they could be passed by VCU should the Rams somehow win it all. But Villanova's run from the #8 seed to the 1985 national championship is surely the most incredible in the 64-team era. The Wildcats squeaked by #9 Dayton by just two points in the first round, then toppled #1 Michigan by four and #5 Maryland by three before shocking #2 North Carolina 56-44 to advance to the Final Four. Playing the only non-Big East Final Four team in Memphis, Villanova won 52-45 to set up a meeting with #1 Georgetown, the defending national champions and a team that had beaten Villanova twice during the regular season. This time, the Wildcats nearly threw a perfect game - they shot 22-of-28 from the floor and were 22-of-27 from the free throw line - and they needed every last one of those shots in a 66-64 win that saw Georgetown make 29-of-53 field goals but get to the line a mere eight times, making just six. Whether Villanova could have made a run like this with a shot clock (this was the last tournament without one) might be questionable, since it was their ability to wait for the perfect shot that enabled them to beat the Hoyas, but hey, they didn't have to. Until another team seeded this low wins it all, Villanova will own the most incredible run in the history of the 64 (or more)-team tournament.

Cardiac Arrest 'Cats

You know what this was, really? It was the 2010 Outback Bowl with Auburn all over again. All the elements were there. Northwestern goes down early, then rallies, then looks to be down a disappointingly large amount with not much time left only to close fast and tie things at the end. And then came the punch to the gut, followed by a miracle reprieve... only to be followed by the actual loss.

Really, considering how poorly they shot the ball - particularly from three, where they were a gapingly bad 10-of-39 - it's amazing Northwestern was in this game at the end. But there they were, having just tied the score on a John Shurna layup - one of his few positive contributions to the game, frankly, and actually it was a goaltending call - with 4.2 seconds to go. It wasn't a lot of time, but it was enough for Washington State to race upcourt. The man with the ball - possibly Reggie Moore, though I don't remember now - raced into the lane. Either Shurna or Marcotullio managed to get in front of him just enough to force a pass underneath. It was kind of a wild pass, but as Drew Crawford lunged for it, he smashed into Abe Lodwick with 0.2 seconds on the clock. The officials called a foul.

I should say I'm not a huge fan of the foul call. It's hardly the worst call I'll ever see, but Crawford was clearly going for the ball and it wasn't a perfect pass that by all rights belonged to Lodwick. On the other hand, if Crawford just stops, there's no way Lodwick has enough time to corral the ball and put up a shot. At any rate, the foul was called, the officials huddled to see how much time was left, put 0.2 seconds back up, and Lodwick stepped to the line with the score tied at 64.

And he missed both.

This, of course, was the miracle reprieve. Crawford's foul was Demos hitting the upright, and Lodwick missing both shots was the roughing the kicker penalty. Unfortunately, the 'Cats didn't even get as close this time as their football counterparts did. While Markshausen was stopped just two yards short of the end zone to end the Outback, the Wildcats went down with a whimper in the overtime, perhaps as exhausted physically as I felt watching them. They went five minutes of overtime with just a single made basket, going just 1-for-10 from the field, and though they were tied at 66 as late as with 1:10 to go, they never really seemed in danger of winning. Washington State wasn't much better, but they were able to get three free throws, and that was enough to hold on. If just one of the 29 threes that Northwestern missed had fallen in regulation, they would have won.

Still, you have to be proud of the 'Cats. For one thing, they got farther than they ever have in the postseason. They went toe-to-toe with an arguably better team in a tough road environment and outworked them - even though Northwestern is a terrible rebounding team, they actually outrebounded Washington State, 34-33, and they had to in order to compensate for all the three-pointers they were bricking. They were 14-of-25 inside the arc, mostly on easy layups, and Carmody seemed frustrated at times by how often the players were willing to settle for difficult three-point looks when they were having so much success inside. On the other hand, Washington State played a pretty decent defensive game and did a good job not allowing too many looks like that.

The 'Cats showed heart. They were down as many as 14 in the first half, 31-17 with 4:22 left in the opening period. Then they went on a 14-7 run to close the half and opened the second with a 7-0 run to tie it and even had the lead a few times, though never by more than two and not later than the six-minute mark of the second half. You can't really argue that they were ever in a position to win the game - only once in the last two minutes of either the second half or OT did they have a shot in the air that would have given them a lead, Shurna's missed three with 33 seconds left and Washington State up 63-62. But they played until the end. Usually when Northwestern shoots their threes that badly they lose badly. This time, at least, they were in it until the horn sounded.

That's the life of a Northwestern sports fan these days - some highs, but ultimately a series of near misses in the big spots. Then again, considering where the football program was 30 years ago, and where the basketball program was even just a decade ago, I guess I'll take it. Sigh. Go 'Cats.

Back in Bracket

I haven't watched much college basketball this year, although naturally I found myself utterly addicted to it during Tournament Week. Now it's time for the NCAA Tournament and of course I don't have the greatest sense for who's going to win. So get ready for a long post wherein I talk myself through all the regions. It's probably going to be utterly uninformative to anyone else (though I will be pulling info from elsewhere), but I only get to do this once a year, so whatever.

East Region

1) Ohio State vs. 16) Texas-San Antonio or Alabama State

8) George Mason vs. 9) Villanova

5) West Virginia vs. 12) Alabama-Birmingham or Clemson

4) Kentucky vs. 13) Princeton

6) Xavier vs. 11) Marquette

3) Syracuse vs. 14) Indiana State

7) Washington vs. 10) Georgia

2) North Carolina vs. 15) Long Island

Ohio State is the number one overall seed, which is funny if you saw Northwestern come within one basket of beating them on two separate occasions. They destroyed small-conference opposition this year, including a few teams in the field (Oakland, Morehead State and UNC-Asheville), so clearly the first round will pose no threat. But can they make it all the way to Houston? Their biggest threats are clearly UNC, Syracuse and Kentucky - I know the Big East is deep, but West Virginia as a 5 seed with 11 losses? Also, they lost to Minnesota. OSU-UK is the most likely matchup in the Sweet 16 and it could be a very interesting game between two teams with freshman stars. North Carolina also has freshman stars, which raises the question: could Syracuse's experience be a valuable asset in this region? Maybe, but first they would have to get past a similarly experienced Xavier squad that came within a double-overtime game of the Elite Eight last year. (Assuming Xavier can beat Marquette, of course. But Marquette is a 14-loss team. 14! I don't care what conference they play in, that's a lot.)

My picks:

First Round

Ohio State over UTSA/ASU

George Mason over Villanova

'Nova has lost seven of their last nine coming in, and the two wins were narrow escapes against Seton Hall and DePaul, not exactly the class of the Big East.

West Virginia over Clemson/UAB

It's weird this year because 11 and 12 seeds win first round games all the time, yet we won't know who two of them are until the night before the real games - it's a little harder to pick with that in mind, but I think WVU will probably beat either team here.

Kentucky over Princeton

Xavier over Marquette

Syracuse over Indiana State

Washington over Georgia

North Carolina over LIU

Second Round

Ohio State over George Mason

Kentucky over West Virginia

UK's top three scorers are all freshmen, which has to scare you a little, but they were super young last year too and still went to the Elite 8 - though they did lose to West Virginia once there... meh, I'm sticking with the team that didn't lose to Minnesota.

Xavier over Syracuse

Pickin' the upset here! Syracuse has made the Sweet 16 the last two years, but Xavier's made it the last three and they always seem to make a run. I think Syracuse is a bit overrated - Seton Hall, a bad team, mopped the floor with them in the Carrier Dome in January. They enter on a mild hot streak, but so does Xavier.

Washington over North Carolina

What??? Well, did you know that UNC also lost to Minnesota? Plus their best player is a freshman and their point guard is a freshman. Dangerous. UW's best three players are a junior and two seniors, plus they can score a lot of points. I do worry a little about their size against Zeller and Henson, but if they can make it into a shootout I like their chances.

Sweet 16

Ohio State over Kentucky

OSU's best player is a freshman, but with Diebler, Buford and Lighty they've got plenty of experience. Kentucky may have the size to slow down Sullinger, but OSU's more experienced guards should be able to get it done.

Xavier over Washington

When in doubt, take the team with the best player. I give Tu Holloway the nod over Isaiah Thomas.

Elite 8

Ohio State over Xavier

I like this to be a closer game than most would expect, but I can't make myself pick Xavier into the Final Four. OSU has big guards and even though Xavier has some size at the forward position and might actually be able to neutralize Sullinger if only through sheer volume, I don't know how Lyons and Holloway are going to guard Diebler and Buford and their several-inch height advantages.

One thoroughly incorrect bracket down, three to go.

West Region

1) Duke vs. 16) Hampton

8) Michigan vs. 9) Tennessee

5) Arizona vs. 12) Memphis

4) Texas vs. 13) Oakland

6) Cincinnati vs. 11) Missouri

3) Connecticut vs. 14) Bucknell

7) Temple vs. 10) Penn State

2) San Diego State vs. 15) Northern Colorado

Kind of a weird region. As the last #1 seed, Duke has to travel a long way from home for the regional in Anaheim - advantage Arizona (if they get past Memphis and Texas) and San Diego State (if they make it to the Elite Eight). I'm sure San Diego State is a good team, but did you notice that they haven't really played anyone this year? They made their bones on a win over Gonzaga in November; Gonzaga was ranked #12 then, but now they're an 11 seed. BYU took them out twice and had to lose a key forward before SDSU could beat them. I don't know. They don't have the hardest road here and they're much closer to home than Temple, Penn State, UConn and Cincy... but can a team that has never won a tournament game suddenly coast into the Elite Eight? Meanwhile on the other side, if Duke can get past the Sweet 16 matchup with either (presumably) Arizona or Texas, they're primed for another Final Four run. Ugh.

My picks:

First Round

Duke over Hampton

Tennessee over Michigan

27 combined losses between UT and UM, so hold your nose for this one. I picked Michigan elsewhere before actually doing any research, but their entire reputation seems based on taking Kansas to overtime. (They also lost to Minnesota at home and got blown out at Indiana.) Tennessee actually beat some quality teams, including #1 seed Pitt. They also look to be more experienced.

Arizona over Memphis

Texas over Oakland

Oakland's best player, Keith Benson, is a 6-11 senior center who goes for 18 and 10 a game. Oakland is also, get this, second in the country in scoring, 14th in rebounding, 17th in assists, and second in field goal percentage. Texas is an even better rebounding team, however, and they play in a real conference. The one thing to watch here is if Texas can guard Benson - the obvious assignment looks to be Tristan Thompson, a freshman who gives up three inches to Benson. If Benson can go for 25 and 10, and gets the appropriate help, Oakland could spring the upset. But I won't pick against a team that beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.

Missouri over Cincinnati

Neither team had much in the way of marquee wins. Cincy got shellacked by Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament, and their best players just don't seem to be that great if you just look at the numbers. Missouri is a high-scoring team that should be able to hit free throws if it jumps out to a lead.

Connecticut over Bucknell

Bucknell, as a school, has upset experience (stunning Kansas from the same seed line in 2005), but this is the first tourney trip for everyone on the current squad. Though UConn may be a little tired from their five-day run through the Big East Tournament, and though they were really inconsistent over the last month and a half, it's hard to see how they lose this one.

Temple over Penn State

San Diego State over Northern Colorado

Second Round

Duke over Tennessee

Texas over Arizona

The game is in Tulsa, meaning Texas is likely to have a pretty sizable advantage in terms of fans.

Connecticut over Missouri

This one is slightly dangerous, because if Connecticut is tired from their Big East run, an up-and-down team like Missouri could be tricky for them. On the other hand, if Missouri doesn't play the greatest defense, Kemba Walker could eat them alive. And this is a UConn team that won at Texas this year, something Mizzou sure couldn't do. UConn will also have the fan advantage in Washington DC.

San Diego State over Temple

Sweet 16

Duke over Texas

This Duke team has been vulnerable on the road, losing at Florida State and Virginia Tech and getting blown out at St. John's - but while Anaheim is closer to Austin than to Durham, this isn't really "the road." I don't think Texas can match Duke's size and experience, sadly.

San Diego State over Connecticut

Another tough call, but SDSU has shown it can win against a team with a big scorer and maybe not enough extra help (BYU in the MWC final) and at this point UConn might just have asked Walker to do too much for too many games in too few days. Plus SDSU is in their backyard and UConn is three thousand miles away.

Elite 8

San Diego State over Duke

Man... am I really going to pick this? I guess I am. Call it wishful thinking if you must - SDSU has a lot of big bodies (although in a one-to-one matchup scenario they tend to give up an inch or two to Duke in most cases) and they'll be close to home, which routinely pans out as a major advantage in the tournament. Duke's road woes could catch up with them here, and given their injury issues I wouldn't put it past them to be additionally banged up by this point. My one big worry is that SDSU is not a great foul-shooting team.

Southwest Region

1) Kansas vs. 16) Boston University

8) UNLV vs. 9) Illinois

5) Vanderbilt vs. 12) Richmond

4) Louisville vs. 13) Morehead State

6) Georgetown vs. 11) USC or Virginia Commonwealth

3) Purdue vs. 14) St. Peter's

7) Texas A&M vs. 10) Florida State

2) Notre Dame vs. 15) Akron

Weird region, because I don't trust most of the high seeds any farther than I can throw them. To me it would be a massive upset if Kansas didn't coast out of this thing; I just don't buy Notre Dame at all (they lost to Northwestern just last year, and that was a team that still had Luke Harangody!), and none of Purdue, Louisville, Vandy or Georgetown excites me. I mean, I'm looking at Purdue in the Elite 8 right now. Really?

My picks:

First Round

Kansas over Boston University

UNLV over Illinois

Richmond over Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt stubbed its toe as a high seed in their last two appearances (2008 and 2010), and Richmond is a senior-heavy team that actually beat Purdue this year (though they also lost to a bad Georgia Tech team).

Louisville over Morehead State

Georgetown over USC/VCU

Hard to know what to do here, but by all accounts VCU is a team that has no business in the field at all, and while USC had some marquee wins (Arizona, at Washington, at Tennessee) and also a key close loss (by two at Kansas), they also had 14 losses, several of them awful (they lost to Rider by 20 points at home [!!!] as well as at a terrible TCU team). Georgetown is stumbling into the tournament having lost four straight, but I still think they can get by either of the potential 11 seeds, at least.

Purdue over St. Peter's

Texas A&M over Florida State

Notre Dame over Akron

Second Round

Kansas over UNLV

Louisville over Richmond

Purdue over Georgetown

Notre Dame over Texas A&M

Sweet 16

Kansas over Louisville

Purdue over Notre Dame

Elite 8

Kansas over Purdue

Not much to say there. I guess you could say this is the bracket I feel the surest about, which probably means USC will make the Sweet 16 and Notre Dame will get to the Final Four.

Southeast Region

1) Pittsburgh vs. 16) UNC-Asheville or Arkansas-Little Rock

8) Butler vs. 9) Old Dominion

5) Kansas State vs. 12) Utah State

4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Belmont

6) St. John's vs. 11) Gonzaga

3) BYU vs. 14) Wofford

7) UCLA vs. 10) Michigan State

2) Florida vs. 15) UC-Santa Barbara

This region, I think - and Seth Davis, for one, seems to agree - could break down like the 1998 Midwest Region. If you'll recall, that one featured top seed Kansas going out to #8 Rhode Island in Round Two; #12 Florida State and #13 Valparaiso both winning, and Valpo subsequently reaching the Sweet 16; and #3 Stanford finally emerging to make the Final Four. (I didn't trust most of the top seeds and so went with #5 TCU to make it out, to my later chagrin.) Now look at this one. You have Pitt as the one seed - good team, but are they great? Florida seems like a weak 2. It's hard to know what to expect out of BYU, and Wisconsin, Kansas State and St. John's all look like potential upsets, drawing three of the best mid-majors in the whole field.

My picks:

First Round

Pittsburgh over UNCA/UALR

Old Dominion over Butler

Of course Butler came up just short in the finals last year, but Gordon Hayward is gone. These teams have a common non-conference opponent: Xavier, who beat Butler but lost to ODU.

Kansas State over Utah State

Belmont over Wisconsin

Wisconsin has routinely underperformed its seed line, dropping to teams seeded at least five lines lower in 2007, 2008 and 2010. Belmont, meanwhile, is a high-scoring team that hits its shots, and if they can get out to a lead, Wisconsin's big advantages - clock management and hitting free throws - will be thoroughly negated. This was probably the one upset in the whole bracket that really jumped out at me, especially after Wisconsin scored just 33 points in the Big Ten semifinal against Penn State. Utah State definitely has a good chance of taking out KSU as well, but I was reluctant to pick the 12 and 13 here.

Gonzaga over St. John's

St. John's made its name this year as a giant-killer, with wins over Duke, Pitt, Notre Dame and UConn. They also lost to Fordham, St. Bonaventure and Seton Hall and will be playing without D.J. Kennedy, one of their top three guys. Gonzaga underachieved this year but they've won nine straight and have been here before.

BYU over Wofford

Michigan State over UCLA

Florida over UCSB

Second Round

Pittsburgh over Old Dominion

Kansas State over Belmont

I find Belmont intriguing, but Kansas State was in the Elite 8 just last year and still has the best players from that team. You don't see 13 seeds winning multiple games, even if Belmont has an argument for being underseeded.

BYU over Gonzaga

I'm not sure how BYU will handle 7-foot Gonzaga center Robert Sacre, but I think Fredette's scoring and a favorable crowd in Denver can get BYU to the Sweet 16.

Florida over Michigan State

Florida has some losses that really give one pause - Central Florida, home to Jacksonville and South Carolina - but Michigan State was so inconsistent this year it's a minor miracle they made it this far.

Sweet 16

Pittsburgh over Kansas State

Looks real good on paper, a battle between two experienced teams. Pitt looks like they have a little more talent, though KSU might have the best player. Nod to Pitt.

BYU over Florida

BYU beat Florida last year behind 37 points from Fredette, so why not again this year? The game is much closer to Florida, but Fredette hasn't shown a tendency to wilt on the road.

Elite 8

Pittsburgh over BYU

Fredette alone couldn't carry BYU past Kansas State in the second round last year, and I don't see him doing it here, but with no Brandon Davies, the Elite 8 would be a nice run.

So that's the four regions. How about the Final Four?

Final Four

Ohio State over San Diego State

The shooting touch of OSU's guards should carry the day here.

Kansas over Pittsburgh

Just don't see Pitt having an answer for the Morrises inside.

National Championship

Ohio State over Kansas

A tantalizing final, even if it is the top two seeds. How will Sullinger and the Morrises play each other? Can Kansas' guards keep up with the hot shooting of Ohio State's? In the end I think it's Buford and Diebler who win it for Ohio State, 76-72.